Reference · Figures
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Inception & Development
93 figures
| Figure | Claim | Source | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| P50 at first stage approval and P80 at second | The Commonwealth two stage capital works process requires P50 at first stage approval and P80 at second, on the reasoning that confidence should rise as the definition does. | Australian Government Department of Finance, Defining P50 and P80Australian Government Department of Finance, Defining P50 and P80, Commonwealth Property Management Framework, RMG 500 | P50, P80 and P90 |
| around five options | In the Green Book method a shortlist should generally contain around five options: business as usual, do minimum, a preferred way forward, and a more and a less ambitious version of it. | HM Treasury, The Green Book, 2026 editionHM Treasury, The Green Book, 2026 edition, paragraphs 5.17 and 5.18 | Do minimumAlso on Business as usual (BAU) |
| 24% for standard buildings to 51% for non-standard buildings | HM Treasury’s recommended optimism bias upper bounds for capital expenditure run from 24% for standard buildings to 51% for non-standard buildings; the upper bounds are the average bias observed at outline business case stage, not the worst case. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1 and paragraph 3.3 | Optimism bias |
| 44% and 66% | HM Treasury’s recommended optimism bias upper bounds for capital expenditure are 44% and 66% for standard and non-standard civil engineering; the upper bounds are the average bias observed at outline business case stage, not the worst case. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1 and paragraph 3.3 | Optimism bias |
| 200% | HM Treasury’s recommended optimism bias upper bound for capital expenditure on equipment and development is 200%; the upper bounds are the average bias observed at outline business case stage, not the worst case. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1 and paragraph 3.3 | Optimism bias |
| 80% confidence interval | The 56R-08 accuracy ranges are quoted at an 80% confidence interval, after contingency, and other classification documents, including earlier revisions, use different bases. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| -5 to +10% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, the expected accuracy range of a Class 1 estimate runs from -5% to +10% at an 80% confidence interval, after contingency. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Estimate range check |
| 65% to 100% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, a Class 1 estimate corresponds to 65% to 100% scope definition, and it is the maturity of the defining deliverables, not the percentage itself, that determines the class. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Estimate class |
| -10 to +15% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, the expected accuracy range of a Class 2 estimate runs from -10% to +15% at an 80% confidence interval, after contingency. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Estimate range check |
| 30% to 75% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, a Class 2 estimate corresponds to 30% to 75% scope definition, and it is the maturity of the defining deliverables, not the percentage itself, that determines the class. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| -15 to +20% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, the expected accuracy range of a Class 3 estimate runs from -15% to +20% at an 80% confidence interval, after contingency. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Inception & DevelopmentEstimate range check |
| 10% to 40% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, a Class 3 estimate corresponds to 10% to 40% scope definition, and it is the maturity of the defining deliverables, not the percentage itself, that determines the class. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| -20 to +30% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, the expected accuracy range of a Class 4 estimate runs from -20% to +30% at an 80% confidence interval, after contingency. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Estimate range check |
| 1% to 15% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, a Class 4 estimate corresponds to 1% to 15% scope definition, and it is the maturity of the defining deliverables, not the percentage itself, that determines the class. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| -30 to +50% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, the expected accuracy range of a Class 5 estimate runs from -30% to +50% at an 80% confidence interval, after contingency. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Inception & DevelopmentThe LifecycleEstimate classEstimate range check |
| 0% to 2% | In AACE 56R-08 for building and general construction, a Class 5 estimate corresponds to 0% to 2% scope definition, and it is the maturity of the defining deliverables, not the percentage itself, that determines the class. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, revision of 7 August 2020, Table 1 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Estimate class |
| +100% to +150% | On the 56R-08 guidance that high ranges may run to two or three times the tabulated range, a Class 5 estimate nominally topping out at +50% can credibly reach +100% to +150%. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020computed on the page from AACE International Recommended Practice 56R-08, Table 1 and the guidance on weak project systems | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| two or three times | 56R-08 records that for weak project systems, and for complex or otherwise risky projects, the high ranges may run to two or three times the tabulated high range. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International RP 56R-08 and RP 18R-97, paragraphs qualifying Table 1, revision of 7 August 2020, free samples | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is definedAlso on Estimate range check |
| 20% to 30% | Saudi Arabia's National Manual for Assets and Facilities Management states, without giving a source or saying what the denominator contains, that building an asset accounts for only 20% to 30% of the total cost of its lifecycle, assuming it operates efficiently, and that the rest is spent operating it. | Expenditure and Projects Efficiency Authority, National Manual for Assets and Facilities Management, Volume 16, Chapter 1, document EOM-ZP0-PR-000004-AR, published in Arabic | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| 5-year | EXPRO's Project Outline Business Case Procedure defines the Sponsor as the individual responsible for proposing the project during five-year portfolio planning, and the Sponsor creates the business case and the evidence matrices. | EXPRO, National Manual for Projects Management, Project Outline Business Case Procedure, EPM-S00-PR-000007 Rev 003, responsibilities section | Operations is told to take part in the business case. Nobody asks it to sign. |
| 227 projects | The 2023-24 Government Major Projects Portfolio reviewed by the Evaluation Task Force in April 2025 comprises 227 projects. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated questionAlso on Benefits realisation |
| £834 billion | The 227 projects of the 2023-24 Government Major Projects Portfolio have a total cost of £834 billion, measured as whole life cost. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 45% | Within the two thirds of major projects without an evaluation plan that met the review's quality criteria, 45% had an evaluation of some kind that did not meet the quality criteria, some of them early in development and likely to improve. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 23% | Measured by the share of projects whose evaluation plan meets the review's quality criteria, information and communications technology projects in the Government Major Projects Portfolio sit at 23%. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 54% | Across the 227 projects of the Government Major Projects Portfolio, 54% have an impact evaluation plan. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 31% | Across the 227 projects of the Government Major Projects Portfolio, 31% have an impact evaluation plan that meets the review's quality criteria. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 84% | Broken down by category, infrastructure and construction projects are the best evaluated in the Government Major Projects Portfolio, with 84% having an evaluation plan of some kind. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 68% | In the Government Major Projects Portfolio, 68% of infrastructure and construction projects have an evaluation plan that meets the standard, which is twice the portfolio average. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 2% | Measured by the share of projects whose evaluation plan meets the review's quality criteria, military capability projects in the Government Major Projects Portfolio sit at 2%, for reasons the Evaluation Task Force review discusses. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 55% | Within the two thirds of major projects without an evaluation plan that met the review's quality criteria, 55% provided no evidence of any evaluation plan at all. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 55% | Across the 227 projects of the Government Major Projects Portfolio, 55% have a process evaluation plan. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 28% | Across the 227 projects of the Government Major Projects Portfolio, 28% have a process evaluation plan that meets the review's quality criteria. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| two thirds | The Evaluation Task Force found that two thirds of the UK's major projects have no adequate plan to establish their own outcomes, and that value for money is the least evaluated of the three types. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Doing the project right, and doing the right projectAlso on Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 34% | Of the 227 projects in the 2023-24 Government Major Projects Portfolio, a third, 34%, were assessed as having evaluation plans the Evaluation Task Force judged robust, its term for a design capable of answering the questions it sets. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| £378 billion | The projects in the 2023-24 Government Major Projects Portfolio whose evaluation plans met the Evaluation Task Force's quality criteria represent £378 billion of whole life cost. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 27% | Measured by the share of projects whose evaluation plan meets the review's quality criteria, government transformation and service delivery projects in the Government Major Projects Portfolio sit at 27%. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 46% | Across the 227 projects of the Government Major Projects Portfolio, 46% have a value for money evaluation plan, the lowest coverage of the three types. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 17% | Across the 227 projects of the Government Major Projects Portfolio, 17% have a value for money evaluation plan that meets the review's quality criteria, making value for money the weakest of the three types on both coverage and quality. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| £456 billion | The remaining two thirds of the 2023-24 Government Major Projects Portfolio, representing £456 billion, did not have evaluation plans that met the Evaluation Task Force's quality criteria. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| around five | The Green Book says the shortlist should generally contain around five options, so that decision makers are presented with genuine choices rather than a single pre-determined outcome. | HM Treasury, The Green Book, 2026 editionHM Treasury, The Green Book, 2026 edition, paragraphs 5.17 and 5.18 | Weighting and scoring is the method the guidance warns against |
| 49 professional bodies | ICMS 3, the International Cost Management Standard, which gives a classification and presentation structure for life cycle costs and, since its third edition, carbon, was agreed by 49 professional bodies through the ICMS Coalition. | ICMS 3, International Cost Management Standard, life cycle costs and carbon | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need itAlso on Lifecycle cost sensitivityWhole-life cost (WLC)ICMS 3Cost controller |
| 9 in 10 | Bent Flyvbjerg reports that nine out of ten megaprojects have cost overruns, with samples weighted towards transport and public infrastructure and definitions of overrun that vary between studies. | Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and WhyFlyvbjerg, the iron law of megaprojects | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the projectAlso on Delivery & Controls |
| 50% | Bent Flyvbjerg reports that megaproject overruns of up to 50% in real terms are common and above 50% not uncommon, a pattern he finds across the countries and decades for which comparable data exist. | Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and WhyFlyvbjerg, the iron law of megaprojects | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the projectAlso on Delivery & Controls |
| 23 | For non-standard buildings, inadequacy of the business case is again the largest contributor to capital expenditure optimism bias in HM Treasury's guidance, at 23% of the recorded bias. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Tables 2 to 4, contributory factor contributions | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 35 | For non-standard civil engineering, inadequacy of the business case is the largest contributor to capital expenditure optimism bias in HM Treasury's guidance, at 35% of the recorded bias. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Tables 2 to 4, contributory factor contributions | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 52 | For outsourcing, measured on operating expenditure, inadequacy of the business case accounts for 52% of the recorded optimism bias in HM Treasury's guidance. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Tables 2 to 4, contributory factor contributions | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 34% | For standard buildings, HM Treasury's optimism bias guidance names inadequacy of the business case as the largest single contributor to capital expenditure optimism bias, at 34% of the recorded bias. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Tables 2 to 4, contributory factor contributions | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 10 to 200 | HM Treasury's optimism bias guidance gives equipment and development, which covers software and systems, a capital expenditure adjustment range of 10% to 200%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1, prepared from Mott MacDonald, Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK, 2002 | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 4 to 51 | HM Treasury's optimism bias guidance gives a non-standard building, meaning one that is innovative, mostly unique or complex to construct, a capital expenditure adjustment range of 4% to 51%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1, prepared from Mott MacDonald, Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK, 2002 | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 6 to 66 | HM Treasury's optimism bias guidance gives non-standard civil engineering a capital expenditure adjustment range of 6% to 66%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1, prepared from Mott MacDonald, Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK, 2002 | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| upper bound of 24% and a lower bound of 2 | HM Treasury's Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias gives a standard building a capital expenditure adjustment with an upper bound of 24% and a lower bound of 2%, the upper bound being the average historic optimism bias observed at outline business case stage. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1, prepared from Mott MacDonald, Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK, 2002 | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 3 to 44 | HM Treasury's optimism bias guidance gives standard civil engineering a capital expenditure adjustment range of 3% to 44%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1, prepared from Mott MacDonald, Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK, 2002 | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 54 | In HM Treasury's optimism bias table for works duration, equipment and development carries an adjustment of up to 54%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, works duration table | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 39% | In HM Treasury's optimism bias table for works duration, a non-standard building carries an adjustment of up to 39%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, works duration table | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 20 | In HM Treasury's optimism bias table for works duration, standard civil engineering carries an adjustment of up to 20%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, works duration table | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| 41% | HM Treasury's optimism bias guidance measures outsourcing on operating rather than capital expenditure, with an upper bound of 41%. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism Bias, Table 1, prepared from Mott MacDonald, Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK, 2002 | The largest contributor to optimism bias is the document that starts the project |
| SAR 211 billion from SAR 241 billion | The carrying value of the Public Investment Fund's giga-project portfolio fell to SAR 211 billion from SAR 241 billion a year earlier, according to its 2024 annual report as reported by Reuters and CNBC in August 2025. | Public Investment Fund 2024 annual report, as reported by Reuters and CNBC, August 2025 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| more than 12% | The fall in the carrying value of the Public Investment Fund's giga-project portfolio to SAR 211 billion from SAR 241 billion, recorded in its 2024 annual report as reported by Reuters and CNBC in August 2025, was a reduction of more than 12%. | Public Investment Fund 2024 annual report, as reported by Reuters and CNBC, August 2025 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| 8bn dollars | In its 2024 annual report, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund recorded a write-down of roughly 8bn dollars against its giga-projects, which Reuters and CNBC reported in August 2025 as reflecting cost overruns, delays and changed market conditions. | Public Investment Fund 2024 annual report, as reported by Reuters and CNBC, August 2025 | An estimate is a measure of how well the scope is defined |
| 20% | According to press reporting that rests on unnamed sources, the Public Investment Fund approved a minimum 20% spending reduction across its portfolio at a board meeting in December 2024. | Arabian Gulf Business Insight, March 2025, describing a board decision taken in December 2024 and attributed to unnamed sources rather than to a statement by the fund | A gate that has never been failed is not a controlAlso on Doing the project right, and doing the right projectEvery appraisal can be right and the portfolio still wrongHandover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| 8% | A 2019 review by the Prime Minister's Implementation Unit, cited in the Evaluation Task Force's review, found that only 8% of spend on the Government Major Projects Portfolio at that time had suitable impact evaluation plans. | Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025Prime Minister's Implementation Unit review, 2019, as cited in Evaluation Task Force, Government Major Projects Evaluation Review, April 2025 | Whether it was worth doing is the least evaluated question |
| 1:5:200 | The 1:5:200 ratio, one pound of construction cost, five of maintenance and building operating cost and 200 of business and staffing cost over a building's life, originates in a 1998 Royal Academy of Engineering paper by Evans, Haryott, Haste and Jones, and Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst found it is not supported by any research, data or analysis in that paper and cannot be replicated because its data and definitions no longer exist. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004R Evans, R Haryott, N Haste and A Jones, The Long Term Costs of Owning and Using Buildings, Royal Academy of Engineering, 1998, as the source in which the ratio first appeared | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need itAlso on Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
| 1:0.4:12 | Using published cost data for three real office buildings, Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst calculated roughly 1:0.4:12, a different order of magnitude from 1:5:200 on two of the three terms. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004 | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| 7.7m | The first of the three office buildings in the Reading study had a construction cost of 7.7m. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Volume 1, pages 373 to 381, Table 4 | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| 25% | For the first building in the Reading study, construction is about 25% of construction, maintenance and replacement, and other occupancy costs combined, which sits inside the manual's 20% to 30%. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004computed on the page from Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Volume 1, pages 373 to 381, Table 4 | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| 3.9m | The first of the three office buildings in the Reading study had maintenance and replacement costs of 3.9m over 25 years. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Volume 1, pages 373 to 381, Table 4 | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| 19.2m | The first of the three office buildings in the Reading study had other occupancy costs of 19.2m over the same 25 years. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Volume 1, pages 373 to 381, Table 4 | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| two thirds | For the same building, excluding occupancy costs and counting only maintenance and replacement makes construction rise to two thirds of lifecycle cost. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004computed on the page from Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Volume 1, pages 373 to 381, Table 4 | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| 7% | For the same building, including the staff who work in it makes construction fall to about 7% of lifecycle cost. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004computed on the page from Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Volume 1, pages 373 to 381, Table 4 | A lifecycle ratio nobody can check, and a conclusion that does not need it |
| L: -3% to -10%; H: +3% to +15% | AACE RP 18R-97, Table 1, gives a Class 1 estimate for process industries (65% to 100% of complete definition, check estimate or bid/tender) a published accuracy range of -3% to -10% low and +3% to +15% high, narrow to wide, at an 80% confidence interval after contingency. | AACE International RP 18R-97, cost estimate classification for the process industries, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International RP 18R-97, Table 1, revision of 7 August 2020, free sample | Estimate range check |
| L: -5% to -15%; H: +5% to +20% | AACE RP 18R-97, Table 1, gives a Class 2 estimate for process industries (30% to 75% of complete definition, control or bid/tender) a published accuracy range of -5% to -15% low and +5% to +20% high, narrow to wide, at an 80% confidence interval after contingency. | AACE International RP 18R-97, cost estimate classification for the process industries, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International RP 18R-97, Table 1, revision of 7 August 2020, free sample | Estimate range check |
| L: -10% to -20%; H: +10% to +30% | AACE RP 18R-97, Table 1, gives a Class 3 estimate for process industries (10% to 40% of complete definition, budget authorisation or control) a published accuracy range of -10% to -20% low and +10% to +30% high, narrow to wide, at an 80% confidence interval after contingency. | AACE International RP 18R-97, cost estimate classification for the process industries, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International RP 18R-97, Table 1, revision of 7 August 2020, free sample | Estimate range check |
| L: -15% to -30%; H: +20% to +50% | AACE RP 18R-97, Table 1, gives a Class 4 estimate for process industries (1% to 15% of complete definition, study or feasibility) a published accuracy range of -15% to -30% low and +20% to +50% high, narrow to wide, at an 80% confidence interval after contingency. | AACE International RP 18R-97, cost estimate classification for the process industries, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International RP 18R-97, Table 1, revision of 7 August 2020, free sample | Estimate range check |
| L: -20% to -50%; H: +30% to +100% | AACE RP 18R-97, Table 1, gives a Class 5 estimate for process industries (0% to 2% of complete definition, concept screening) a published accuracy range of -20% to -50% low and +30% to +100% high, narrow to wide, at an 80% confidence interval after contingency. | AACE International RP 18R-97, cost estimate classification for the process industries, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International RP 18R-97, Table 1, revision of 7 August 2020, free sample | Estimate range check |
| 80% confidence interval; roughly a 50% chance | The AACE Table 1 percentages are the typical variation of actual cost from the estimate at an 80% confidence interval, after a contingency set for roughly a 50% chance of overrun against underrun, so about one project in five is expected to land outside even the wide band. | AACE International RP 56R-08, cost estimate classification for building and general construction, rev. 7 August 2020AACE International RP 56R-08 and RP 18R-97, Table 1 and its qualifying paragraphs, revision of 7 August 2020, free samples | Estimate range check |
| 21 contributory factors | The guidance reduces the upper bound in proportion to how far each of 21 contributory factors has been mitigated, and says that clear and tangible evidence of the mitigation must be observed and should be independently verified before any reduction is made (3.17). | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, paragraph 3.17 and appendix | Optimism bias uplift |
| 35% | The guidance treats a project as combined where the minority element exceeds 35% and cannot be physically separated (3.8). | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, paragraph 3.8 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 10% to 200%; duration 10% to 54% | HM Treasury’s Supplementary Green Book Guidance on optimism bias, Table 1, gives equipment and development a recommended adjustment of 10% at the lower bound to 200% at the upper on capital expenditure, and 10% to 54% on works duration, figures resting on one 2002 study of large UK public procurement and called indicative starting values. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, Table 1, page 2 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 4% to 51%; duration 2% to 39% | HM Treasury’s Supplementary Green Book Guidance on optimism bias, Table 1, gives non-standard buildings a recommended adjustment of 4% at the lower bound to 51% at the upper on capital expenditure, and 2% to 39% on works duration, figures resting on one 2002 study of large UK public procurement and called indicative starting values. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, Table 1, page 2 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 6% to 66%; duration 3% to 25% | HM Treasury’s Supplementary Green Book Guidance on optimism bias, Table 1, gives non-standard civil engineering a recommended adjustment of 6% at the lower bound to 66% at the upper on capital expenditure, and 3% to 25% on works duration, figures resting on one 2002 study of large UK public procurement and called indicative starting values. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, Table 1, page 2 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 0% to 41% | HM Treasury’s Supplementary Green Book Guidance on optimism bias, Table 1, gives outsourcing a recommended adjustment of 0% at the lower bound to 41% at the upper on operating expenditure, and no works duration figure, figures resting on one 2002 study of large UK public procurement and called indicative starting values. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, Table 1, page 2 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 2% to 24%; duration 1% to 4% | HM Treasury’s Supplementary Green Book Guidance on optimism bias, Table 1, gives standard buildings a recommended adjustment of 2% at the lower bound to 24% at the upper on capital expenditure, and 1% to 4% on works duration, figures resting on one 2002 study of large UK public procurement and called indicative starting values. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, Table 1, page 2 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 3% to 44%; duration 1% to 20% | HM Treasury’s Supplementary Green Book Guidance on optimism bias, Table 1, gives standard civil engineering a recommended adjustment of 3% at the lower bound to 44% at the upper on capital expenditure, and 1% to 20% on works duration, figures resting on one 2002 study of large UK public procurement and called indicative starting values. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, Table 1, page 2 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 100m; 28 months | HM Treasury’s optimism bias guidance works its own example, on pages 6 to 8: a non-standard building estimated at 100m over a 28 month works duration, adjusted at both bounds. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, pages 6 to 8 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 151,000,000 and 104,000,000 | The guidance publishes the answer to its own worked example as capital expenditure of 151,000,000 at the upper bound and 104,000,000 at the lower. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, pages 6 to 8 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 38.9 months and 28.6 months | The guidance publishes the answer to its own worked example as a works duration of 38.9 months at the upper bound and 28.6 months at the lower. | HM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance, Optimism BiasHM Treasury, Supplementary Green Book Guidance: Optimism Bias, pages 6 to 8 | Optimism bias uplift |
| 308 staff, 40,000 sq ft; 7,712,937 construction | Building A in Table 4 of the Hughes paper houses 308 staff in 40,000 sq ft and costs 7,712,937 to construct, 3,915,766 in maintenance and replacement, 19,189,175 in running costs and 79,624,677 in salaries over 25 years, UK offices at 1999 prices, discounted. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Table 4 | Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
| 1 : 1 : 30 | The authors state that with finance costs omitted and the money flows left undiscounted, Building A comes out at about 1 : 1 : 30 rather than 1 : 0.5 : 12.8. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004 | Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
| 787 staff, 100,000 sq ft; 18,684,676 construction | Building B in Table 4 of the Hughes paper houses 787 staff in 100,000 sq ft and costs 18,684,676 to construct, 7,117,241 in maintenance and replacement, 39,943,190 in running costs and 203,456,560 in salaries over 25 years, UK offices at 1999 prices, discounted. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Table 4 | Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
| 1,600 staff, 200,000 sq ft; 51,477,744 construction | Building C in Table 4 of the Hughes paper houses 1,600 staff in 200,000 sq ft and costs 51,477,744 to construct, 13,170,912 in maintenance and replacement, 68,353,000 in running costs and 413,634,684 in salaries over 25 years, UK offices at 1999 prices, discounted. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Table 4 | Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
| 66%, 25% or 7% | On three real office buildings costed over 25 years by four researchers at Reading, discounted to a common base date and itemised line by line, moving the scope boundary makes construction 66% of lifecycle cost, or 25%, or 7%, with nothing in the data changed. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Table 4 | Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
| 1:0.5:12.8, 1:0.4:13 and 1:0.3:9.4 | The ARCOM 2004 paper by Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst found ratios of 1:0.5:12.8, 1:0.4:13 and 1:0.3:9.4 on three real office buildings, and its authors state their own limitations, including no regional variation and possibly incomplete business costs. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Table 4 | Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
| a factor of 9.5 | On the published dataset that itemises the components, Hughes and colleagues’ three costed offices, the scope boundary alone moves construction’s share of lifecycle cost by a factor of 9.5. | Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004Hughes, Ancell, Gruneberg and Hirst, Exposing the myth of the 1:5:200 ratio, ARCOM 2004, Table 4 | Lifecycle cost sensitivity |
Delivery & Controls
127 figures
| Figure | Claim | Source | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 countries and six continents | In Flyvbjerg’s dataset the pattern of megaprojects exceeding budget holds across 104 countries and six continents. | Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and WhyFlyvbjerg, the iron law of megaprojects | Delivery & Controls |
| 90 years | In Flyvbjerg’s dataset the pattern of megaprojects exceeding budget has not improved over the ninety years for which comparable records exist. | Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and WhyFlyvbjerg, the iron law of megaprojects | Delivery & Controls |
| roughly one in a thousand | Under Flyvbjerg’s iron law of megaprojects, roughly one in a thousand comes in on budget, on schedule and on benefits together. | Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and WhyFlyvbjerg, the iron law of megaprojects | Delivery & Controls |
| 2,402 cases across 143 countries | The ACFE's 2026 Report to the Nations, the largest recurring study of occupational fraud, is drawn from 2,402 cases across 143 countries investigated by its own members. | Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Occupational Fraud 2026: A Report to the Nations, published May 2026 | Programme risk is not the sum of its functions |
| more than half of cases | More than half of all cases in the ACFE's 2026 study involved either an absence of internal controls or the override of controls that existed. | Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Occupational Fraud 2026: A Report to the Nations, published May 2026 | Programme risk is not the sum of its functions |
| 45% of cases | Corruption, one of the three primary categories in the ACFE's classification, covering conflicts of interest, bribery, illegal gratuities and economic extortion and including bid rigging and invoice kickbacks, appeared in 45% of cases in the 2026 study. | Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Occupational Fraud 2026: A Report to the Nations, published May 2026, and the ACFE Fraud Tree classification | Programme risk is not the sum of its functions |
| 40,000 dollars within 6 months; over 1.1m beyond 5 years | In the ACFE's 2026 study, where a fraud scheme was caught inside six months the median loss was 40,000 dollars, and where it ran beyond five years the median exceeded 1.1m dollars; the study shows losses are larger when detection takes longer, not that earlier auditing of a capital programme lowers project losses. | Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Occupational Fraud 2026: A Report to the Nations, published May 2026 | Programme risk is not the sum of its functions |
| 12 months | Across all cases in the ACFE's 2026 study, the median fraud scheme ran twelve months before detection. | Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Occupational Fraud 2026: A Report to the Nations, published May 2026 | Programme risk is not the sum of its functions |
| more than 9 times | In the ACFE's 2026 study, median losses caused by owners and executives ran more than nine times those caused by employees. | Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Occupational Fraud 2026: A Report to the Nations, published May 2026 | Programme risk is not the sum of its functions |
| 4.3bn of 10.0bn, about 43% | Projecting its sample, the DoD Inspector General found the Corps of Engineers civil works' 10.0bn opening construction-in-progress balance for fiscal year 2003 overstated by 4.3bn, about 43%; every finding of this kind on the page is from one owner, and nothing shows another owner carries a 43% overstatement. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works, page 10 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 0.756bn; 674m | Sampled items valued at 0.756bn related to completed projects, and 674m of that was construction in progress for projects finished before the balance sheet date and never transferred out. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works, Table 1 and page 7 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 0.792bn | Some 0.792bn of the Corps' sampled construction-in-progress value was expense-type work that should never have been capitalised. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works, Table 1 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 1.022bn | Some 1.022bn of the Corps' unsupported construction-in-progress value had originated in a predecessor financial system, been carried across at a system change in 1998, and could no longer be traced to source documents, and six months of audit fieldwork did not find them. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 129 items; 41m | A further 129 items in the Corps' construction-in-progress sample carried negative balances totalling 41m. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works, pages 7 to 10 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 0.929bn of 5.827bn | In the DoD Inspector General's statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items in the US Army Corps of Engineers civil works, the sampled items were valued at 5.827bn, of which 0.929bn was fully supported by source documents. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works, Table 1 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 21m nine months after handover | A flood control tunnel completed in 2001 and handed to its local sponsor by official letter in January 2002 still had its 21m in construction in progress nine months after that. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 3.350bn; 1.195bn | Sampled items valued at 3.350bn were partly or wholly unsupported, and 1.195bn of that could not be verified to the originating source data because the Corps could not reconcile the balances in its financial system to it. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works, Table 1 and page 8 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 27m after 34 years | A 76-mile waterway completed in 1968 still had 27m sitting in construction in progress on 30 September 2002, 34 years later. | DoD Office of Inspector General, Reliability of Construction-in-Progress in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Civil Works, Financial Statements, D-2004-017, November 2003DoD Inspector General D-2004-017, 7 November 2003, statistical sample of 500 of 17,801 construction-in-progress items, US Army Corps of Engineers civil works | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 30 days | The European Commission's 2023 late payment proposal caps agreed payment terms at 30 days rather than only punishing lateness; the proposal is not law, and the Parliament's Legislative Train Schedule, updated 1 August 2026, records the file as blocked by the Council. | European Commission, proposal for a Regulation on combating late payment in commercial transactions, COM(2023) 533 finalEuropean Commission, proposal for a Regulation on combating late payment in commercial transactions, COM(2023) 533 final | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 28 days | Under FIDIC 1999 Sub-Clause 20.1, as quoted in Obrascon, the contractor must give the Engineer notice of a claim as soon as practicable and not later than 28 days after it became aware, or should have become aware, of the event, failing which the Time for Completion is not extended and the employer is discharged from liability for the claim. | Obrascon Huarte Lain SA v Her Majesty’s Attorney General for Gibraltar [2014] EWHC 1028 (TCC)Obrascon Huarte Lain SA v Her Majesty's Attorney General for Gibraltar [2014] EWHC 1028 (TCC), paragraphs 17 and 311 to 313, quoting FIDIC 1999 Sub-Clause 20.1 | An extension of time is tested against records made during the delayAlso on Home |
| 42 days | Under the 1999 FIDIC edition the fully detailed claim was due within 42 days, as Gowling WLG's summary sets the two editions side by side, and a project's particular conditions can change either. | Mike Stewart and Mary Lindsay, Gowling WLG, FIDIC: Claims for time under the 1999 / 2017 Red Book, 23 May 2024 | An extension of time is tested against records made during the delay |
| 3 percentage points above the central bank discount rate | Where an employer pays late, FIDIC 1999 Sub-Clause 14.8 entitles the contractor to financing charges compounded monthly on the amount unpaid, at "three percentage points above the discount rate of the central bank in the country of the currency of payment", payable without formal notice or certification. | FIDIC, Contracts: advanced questions, Construction, Plant and EPCT 1999 contracts, question and answer serviceFIDIC Conditions of Contract 1999, Sub-Clause 14.8, as stated in FIDIC's own question and answer service for the 1999 suite | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 56 days | Under FIDIC 1999 an interim payment falls due 56 days after the Engineer receives the Statement and its supporting documents, so a package short of its evidence has not started the clock. | Tyson, FIDIC 1999 Red Book, Clause 14 Contract Price and Payment, clause commentary, International Construction Knowledge HubFIDIC 1999 Sub-Clauses 14.6 to 14.8 via Tyson's free clause commentary on the International Construction Knowledge Hub | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lenderAlso on Payment chain calculator |
| 28 days and 84 days | Gowling WLG's May 2024 summary of the 2017 Red Book describes a Notice of Claim within 28 days of becoming aware of the event and a fully detailed claim within 84 days, under Sub-Clause 20.2.4; the 2017 conditions themselves are not quoted on the page. | Mike Stewart and Mary Lindsay, Gowling WLG, FIDIC: Claims for time under the 1999 / 2017 Red Book, 23 May 2024, on FIDIC 2017 Red Book Sub-Clause 20.2.4 | An extension of time is tested against records made during the delay |
| 14 days | On Gowling WLG's summary of the 2017 Red Book, a claim whose statement of basis does not arrive in time lapses unless the Engineer fails to give notice of that within 14 days. | Mike Stewart and Mary Lindsay, Gowling WLG, FIDIC: Claims for time under the 1999 / 2017 Red Book, 23 May 2024 | An extension of time is tested against records made during the delay |
| 7.25% | Three points above the Saudi Central Bank repo rate is 7.25%, the rate the standard form itself says the wait is worth rather than any particular contractor's borrowing rate; the Bank publishes no rate named a discount rate, and on the reverse repo the answer would be 6.75%. | FIDIC, Contracts: advanced questions, Construction, Plant and EPCT 1999 contracts, question and answer serviceFIDIC 1999 Sub-Clause 14.8 with the Saudi Central Bank repo rate read at sama.gov.sa | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 86% of projects | The 2002 paper set out optimism and strategic misrepresentation as the two families of explanation for the 86% of projects whose costs were underestimated, and found the second fits the data better because the bias is not random. | Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?, Journal of the American Planning Association 68(3), 2002Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?, Journal of the American Planning Association 68(3), 2002 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 34% (N=4), 23% (N=8), 110% (N=3) | For the 15 bridges and tunnels where ownership was known, privately owned projects escalated by 34% on average (N=4), ordinary public ownership by 23% (N=8) and state-owned enterprises by 110% (N=3); the table is small, holds no private rail or road projects, and the state-owned result may be confounded by geography. | Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004, Table 1 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 183 projects | Ownership was known for 183 of the projects in the 2004 transport sample, and the authors split it three ways: private, state-owned enterprise, and ordinary public ownership by a ministry. | Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| p=0.589 | The difference in cost escalation between private and ordinary public ownership in the 2004 study is not statistically significant (p=0.589), and the authors conclude that the claim that private ownership curbs escalation is an oversimplification. | Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 258 projects in 20 countries | In 2004, 258 rail, road, bridge and tunnel projects in 20 countries, which the authors described as the largest sample of transport project cost data of its kind at the time, were used to test length of implementation, size of project and type of ownership as explanations for cost escalation. | Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews 24(1), 2004 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 18% over cost and 7% late | A bank's core-system replacement that Flyvbjerg and Budzier present as a regional success, doubled in scope by a merger mid-way, was delivered 18% over cost and 7% late. | Flyvbjerg and Budzier, Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think, Harvard Business Review, September 2011Flyvbjerg and Budzier, Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think, Harvard Business Review, September 2011 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 1,471 projects; 27%; 1 in 6 over 200%; 92% public | A study of 1,471 IT projects found an average cost overrun of 27% and one project in six over 200%; the sample was 92% public agencies, and the authors report little difference between those and the private companies in the rest. | Flyvbjerg and Budzier, Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think, Harvard Business Review, September 2011Flyvbjerg and Budzier, Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think, Harvard Business Review, September 2011 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 9 out of 10; up to 50%; 70-year period | Flyvbjerg (2014) reports that nine out of ten megaprojects have cost overruns, that overruns of up to 50% in real terms are common, and that performance has not improved over the 70-year period for which comparable data exist. | Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and WhyBent Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview, Project Management Journal, 2014 | Moving a date is not the same as re-planning |
| 4.64% | Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl found, as reported in Flyvbjerg (2014), that on average a one-year delay or other extension of the implementation phase of major construction projects correlates with an increase in percentage cost overrun of 4.64%, a correlation rather than a demonstrated causal mechanism. | Flyvbjerg, What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and WhyFlyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl (2004), reported in Flyvbjerg (2014) | Moving a date is not the same as re-planning |
| 3.6bn between 24.2bn and 27.8bn | GAO found that the Army did not reconcile a 3.6bn difference between the 24.2bn of real property in its general ledger and the 27.8bn in its facilities system, on its fiscal year 1992 financial statements. | GAO, Financial Management: Army Real Property Accounting and Reporting Weaknesses Impede Management Decision-making, GAO/AIMD-94-9, November 1993GAO/AIMD-94-9, 2 November 1993, on the Army's fiscal year 1992 financial statements, pages 1 and 8 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| $560,000 | GAO found that real property may have been reported twice, giving the example of a $560,000 building addition carried as real property in an installation's ledger and also as construction in progress in the Corps' ledger because the Corps had not removed it on transfer. | GAO, Financial Management: Army Real Property Accounting and Reporting Weaknesses Impede Management Decision-making, GAO/AIMD-94-9, November 1993GAO/AIMD-94-9, 2 November 1993, on the Army's fiscal year 1992 financial statements, page 10 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 134 projects; an estimated 276m | From a random sample of 300 projects that appeared substantially complete, the 20 responding offices reported 87 completed civil and 47 completed military projects, 134 in all, still in construction in progress, with GAO putting the completed cost so reported at an estimated 276m; these are figures for the sample, not the whole account. | GAO, Financial Management: Army Real Property Accounting and Reporting Weaknesses Impede Management Decision-making, GAO/AIMD-94-9, November 1993GAO/AIMD-94-9, 2 November 1993, on the Army's fiscal year 1992 financial statements, pages 1, 4 and 10 | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 180 of 778 projects; 24 agencies; 99% response rate | GAO sampled 180 projects from the 778 major information technology projects the 24 major US federal agencies planned to fund in 2008, and achieved a 99% response rate. | GAO-08-925, Information Technology: Agencies Need to Establish Comprehensive Policies to Address Changes to Projects' Cost, Schedule, and Performance Goals, July 2008 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can moveAlso on Reporting history check |
| 46% | None of the 24 agencies' rebaselining policies was fully consistent with all five practices GAO drew from its cost assessment guidance, not one fully described how a new baseline should be developed, and 46% did not address it at all. | GAO-08-925, Information Technology: Agencies Need to Establish Comprehensive Policies to Address Changes to Projects' Cost, Schedule, and Performance Goals, July 2008, Table 4 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 54% | Validation of a new baseline was unaddressed in 54% of the 24 agencies' rebaselining policies GAO assessed. | GAO-08-925, Information Technology: Agencies Need to Establish Comprehensive Policies to Address Changes to Projects' Cost, Schedule, and Performance Goals, July 2008, Table 4 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 48%; 51% at least twice; about 11% four times or more | On GAO's 2008 sample of major US federal IT projects, an estimated 48% had been rebaselined, 51% of those at least twice and about 11% four times or more; the sample is US federal IT in one year, and whether its rate transfers to construction is untested on the page. | GAO-08-925, Information Technology: Agencies Need to Establish Comprehensive Policies to Address Changes to Projects' Cost, Schedule, and Performance Goals, July 2008 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can moveAlso on Reporting history check |
| 55%, 44%, 14% and 4% | Asked why they had rebaselined, 55% of surveyed managers cited a change in requirements, objectives or scope, 44% a change in funding stream, 14% an inaccurate original baseline, and 4% cost or schedule overruns due to project performance. | GAO-08-925, Information Technology: Agencies Need to Establish Comprehensive Policies to Address Changes to Projects' Cost, Schedule, and Performance Goals, July 2008, Table 2 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 3 military services | For fiscal year 2019 the auditors reported that three military services, the Air Force, the Army and the Navy, were unable to reconcile the information in their real property systems to their financial reporting systems. | GAO, Defense Real Property: DOD-Wide Strategy Needed to Address Control Issues and Improve Reliability of Records, GAO-20-615, September 2020GAO-20-615, September 2020, pages 13 to 15, reporting the independent public accountants' fiscal year 2019 financial statement audits of the military services | The certified value and the booked value are two different records |
| 60 of 95 | Assessing 95 major federal IT investments from the agencies' own risk registers, cost and schedule data and review board briefings, GAO matched the April 2015 CIO rating 22 times, showed more risk 60 times and less risk 13 times, while stating that CIOs could have had more information than it examined and that risk ratings are by nature judgmental. | GAO, IT Dashboard: Agencies Need to Fully Consider Risks When Rating Their Major Investments, GAO-16-494, June 2016GAO-16-494, 95 major federal IT investments at 15 agencies, April 2015 CIO ratings against GAO's own assessment from the agencies' risk registers | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 40 of 95 ratings; none of 25 at the Department of Defense | Forty of the 95 CIO ratings GAO examined had not been updated in the month examined, and at the Department of Defense none of its 25 had. | GAO, IT Dashboard: Agencies Need to Fully Consider Risks When Rating Their Major Investments, GAO-16-494, June 2016GAO-16-494 | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| about 47% | GAO's examination of six agencies' CIO ratings from the dashboard's launch to March 2012 found that about 47% of investments had received the same rating in every single period, and that two agencies had rated nothing high or moderately high risk in that whole period. | GAO, Information Technology Dashboard: Opportunities Exist to Improve Transparency and Oversight of Investment Risk at Select Agencies, GAO-13-98, October 2012GAO-13-98, October 2012 | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 52% | GAO's fiscal year 2025 effectiveness rate, the share of protests closed in which the protester obtained some relief through a sustained protest or the agency's voluntary corrective action, was 52%. | GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025 | The score that is not a number |
| 1,688 cases, 1,617 protests | In fiscal year 2025 GAO received 1,688 bid protest cases, 1,617 of them protests, counting docket numbers rather than procurements, so a supplemental protest on the same award is a separate case. | GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025 | The score that is not a number |
| 53 of 380, 14% | In fiscal year 2025 GAO issued 380 bid protest decisions on the merits and sustained 53, a sustain rate of 14% that is a share of merit decisions among cases brought, not a measure of evaluations nobody protested. | GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025 | The score that is not a number |
| 11-month period against 9 months | GAO's fiscal year 2025 example of a sustained protest for unreasonable technical evaluation is an agency crediting the awardee with staffing for the required 11-month period when the awardee had proposed staffing for 9 months. | GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025GAO, Bid Protest Annual Report to Congress for Fiscal Year 2025, B-158766, 12 December 2025 | The score that is not a number |
| over 770 major investments at 26 agencies | By 2016, as GAO-16-494 records on its page 4, the IT Dashboard listed over 770 major investments at 26 agencies, covering 42bn dollars of those agencies' planned 82bn in IT spending for fiscal year 2017. | GAO, IT Dashboard: Agencies Need to Fully Consider Risks When Rating Their Major Investments, GAO-16-494, June 2016GAO-16-494, June 2016, page 4 | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 42bn dollars of a planned 82bn | By 2016, as GAO-16-494 records on its page 4, the IT Dashboard listed over 770 major investments at 26 agencies, covering 42bn dollars of those agencies' planned 82bn in IT spending for fiscal year 2017. | GAO, IT Dashboard: Agencies Need to Fully Consider Risks When Rating Their Major Investments, GAO-16-494, June 2016GAO-16-494, June 2016, page 4 | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 3 of 15 agencies | Three of the 15 agencies in GAO's 2016 review of CIO ratings disagreed with the findings and said their ratings were adequate. | GAO, IT Dashboard: Agencies Need to Fully Consider Risks When Rating Their Major Investments, GAO-16-494, June 2016GAO-16-494 | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 8 of 13; 8 | In the first tranche of GSA's published rebaselining data, covering 13 projects completed in 2020, 8 of the 13 had a completion date moved to a later one and 8 had a cost estimate that had been rebaselined. | GAO-20-144, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, December 2019, and the subsequent reporting of 13 completed projects | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 11 of 13 | Measured against their original baselines, 11 of the 13 GSA projects completed in 2020 took longer than planned and two finished sooner. | GAO-20-144, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, December 2019, and the subsequent reporting of 13 completed projects | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 10 of 13 | Against their final baselines, already reset to reflect what had happened, 10 of the 13 GSA projects completed in 2020 still exceeded their cost. | GAO-20-144, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, December 2019, and the subsequent reporting of 13 completed projects | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 36 projects, each at least 20m dollars, 3.2bn together | Between 2014 and 2018 the US General Services Administration completed 36 major construction projects, each costing at least 20m dollars and together 3.2bn. | GAO-20-144, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, December 2019 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 25 of 36 | GAO found that GSA routinely meets its cost and schedule goals, and that it had rebaselined 25 of its 36 completed major construction projects without its annual performance reports saying so. | GAO-20-144, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, December 2019 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 2.7m dollars on a 21.8m contract | One GSA modernisation took a 2.7m dollar increase on a contract awarded at 21.8m, to add a stairwell after the tenant decided to increase the building's occupancy. | GAO-20-144, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, December 2019 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| up to 50% | Saudi Arabia's National Infrastructure Fund runs a Contractor Financing Program which covers up to 50% of partner banks' facilities to contractors under specific contracts, stated on its own page as de-risking lender exposure; that it exists does not prove the payment chain caused the need. | National Infrastructure Fund (Infra), Contractor Financing Program, Saudi ArabiaNational Infrastructure Fund, Contractor Financing Program page | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 200m to 1.25bn riyals | The National Infrastructure Fund's Contractor Financing Program is aimed at contractors on national projects valued between 200m and 1.25bn riyals. | National Infrastructure Fund (Infra), Contractor Financing Program, Saudi ArabiaNational Infrastructure Fund, Contractor Financing Program page | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 65% | Independent Project Analysis's own page on its founder's book on megaprojects puts the failure rate against the owners' own business objectives at 65%, drawn from its proprietary database, which makes the figure the consultancy's published account of its own data. | Independent Project Analysis, Edward Merrow on why megaprojects fail, 11 January 2012Independent Project Analysis, its own page on its founder's book, 11 January 2012 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 90% reliability | ISO 281 defines the basic rating life of a rolling bearing as the life associated with 90% reliability under stated conditions of material, manufacture and operation, and gives the calculation. | ISO 281:2007, Rolling bearings, Dynamic load ratings and rating lifeISO 281:2007, Rolling bearings, Dynamic load ratings and rating life, clause 1 and definition 3.4, read in the free sample | Reliability can be specified like mass. Building owners do not. |
| 1 (high risk) to 5 (low risk) | Each agency's chief information officer assigns the CIO rating from 1 (high risk) to 5 (low risk) on his or her best judgment against six suggested factors, and the dashboard colours the result. | GAO, IT Dashboard: Agencies Need to Fully Consider Risks When Rating Their Major Investments, GAO-16-494, June 2016OMB IT Dashboard rating rules, as set out in GAO-16-494, pages 4 to 5 | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| under 10%, 10% to 30%, over 30% | On the federal IT Dashboard, cost and schedule ratings are calculated from agency-submitted data: a variance under 10% is green, 10% to 30% is amber, and over 30% is red. | GAO, IT Dashboard: Agencies Need to Fully Consider Risks When Rating Their Major Investments, GAO-16-494, June 2016OMB IT Dashboard rating rules, as set out in GAO-16-494, pages 4 to 5 | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 5 of 6 recurring findings | Five of the six findings Jordan's Audit Bureau records repeatedly on government capital projects in its 73rd annual report sit with the public owner, not the contractor. | Audit Bureau of Jordan, 73rd Annual Report, for 2024Audit Bureau of Jordan, 73rd Annual Report for 2024, chapter 8 and pages 51 to 52 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 13 projects drawn at 0% to 15%; 6 at 0%; 8,438,134 dinars | Jordan's Audit Bureau's 73rd annual report tabulates 13 loan-funded projects drawn at between 0% and 15% years after signing, six of them at 0%, with 8,438,134 dinars of commitment fees paid in 2024 on money not drawn. | Audit Bureau of Jordan, 73rd Annual Report, for 2024Audit Bureau of Jordan, 73rd Annual Report for 2024, chapter 8 and pages 51 to 52 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 100, 67 and 50 | In Kiiver and Kodym's worked table, bids of 50, 75 and 100 score 100, 67 and 50 under the inverse-proportional price method, where a linear distribution between the same endpoints would give the middle bid 75. | Niels Kiiver and Jakub Kodym, Price-Quality Ratios in Value-for-Money Awards, Journal of Public Procurement 15(3), 2015, pages 275 to 290, worked price table | Three award rules make you disclose how the criteria are weighed. None makes you defend it. |
| about 8 points, roughly 10% | On Kiiver and Kodym's worked table the middle bid loses about 8 points under the inverse-proportional price method, roughly 10% of the score a linear distribution would give it, for no reason other than sitting in the middle of the range. | Niels Kiiver and Jakub Kodym, Price-Quality Ratios in Value-for-Money Awards, Journal of Public Procurement 15(3), 2015, pages 275 to 290 | Three award rules make you disclose how the criteria are weighed. None makes you defend it. |
| 50% | Kiiver and Kodym conclude that, where price and quality scores are added, the price weight should not fall below 50%, describing the uncatchable quality gap as an implicit minimum quality threshold that tenderers, and perhaps buyers, are not necessarily aware of. | Niels Kiiver and Jakub Kodym, Price-Quality Ratios in Value-for-Money Awards, Journal of Public Procurement 15(3), 2015, pages 275 to 290 | Three award rules make you disclose how the criteria are weighed. None makes you defend it. |
| 11 activities | LEED's commissioning prerequisite requires 11 activities, so a checklist with one question per activity asks 11 questions. | USGBC, LEED v4 BD+C, Fundamental Commissioning and Verification prerequisite | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 1,860 square metres | LEED v4's small-project relief in the commissioning prerequisite switches off at 1,860 square metres, and LEED v5 removed that relief. | USGBC, LEED v4 BD+C, Fundamental Commissioning and Verification prerequisite | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 1,981 projects; Rs 37,12,662 crore original; Rs 42,78,402 crore revised | MoSPI's April 2026 report, generated from the ministry's new portal, gives 1,981 ongoing projects with an original cost of Rs 37,12,662 crore and a revised cost of Rs 42,78,402 crore, a cost overrun of 15% visible by subtraction, and carries no count of delayed projects and no reasons for delay. | MoSPI, Flash Report on Central Sector Infrastructure Projects costing Rs 150 crore and above, April 2026 (PAIMANA)MoSPI, Flash Report on Central Sector Infrastructure Projects, April 2026 | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 486th issue | India's statistics ministry's monthly count of central government projects above Rs 150 crore is now in its 486th issue, and until recently carried the reasons implementing agencies give for delay. | MoSPI, monthly Flash Report on central sector projects above Rs 150 crore | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 458 of 1,817; 20.70%; 831 and 554 delayed; 35.1 months | Of 1,817 ongoing Indian central sector projects in MoSPI's May 2024 report, 458 reported cost overrun against original cost, 20.70% in aggregate, and 831 were delayed against their original completion date and 554 against their latest approved date, with an average time overrun of 35.1 months; the report calls its list non-exhaustive and its data self-reported by the agencies. | MoSPI, Flash Report on Central Sector Projects costing Rs 150 crore and above, May 2024MoSPI, Flash Report on Central Sector Projects, May 2024, overview pages | Private projects overrun too. The difference is who counts. |
| 60,000 strikes; £2.4 billion a year | Against roughly 60,000 strikes a year on buried services, a figure the Commission describes as a widely reported industry statistic rather than its own measurement, the UK Geospatial Commission put the economic cost at about £2.4 billion annually. | UK Geospatial Commission and Cabinet Office, National Underground Asset Register (NUAR): Economic Case Summary, 4 November 2021 | The ground was always there. The record was not. |
| around 30% of incidents | The UK Geospatial Commission attributed around 30% of utility strike incidents to inadequate plans and on-site procedures for using data, taking that as its central estimate of the share avoidable through better information. | UK Geospatial Commission and Cabinet Office, National Underground Asset Register (NUAR): Economic Case Summary, 4 November 2021 | The ground was always there. The record was not. |
| £30 per pound invested | A conservative estimate of the return on the National Underground Asset Register was £30 of benefit for every pound invested. | UK Geospatial Commission and Cabinet Office, National Underground Asset Register (NUAR): Economic Case Summary, 4 November 2021 | The ground was always there. The record was not. |
| £3,371 | The UK Geospatial Commission estimated the average direct cost of a utility strike at £3,371. | UK Geospatial Commission and Cabinet Office, National Underground Asset Register (NUAR): Economic Case Summary, 4 November 2021 | The ground was always there. The record was not. |
| 29 times | The NUAR Economic Case Summary puts the indirect costs of a utility strike, which the Commission identifies as including project delays and extended road closures, at on average 29 times the direct costs. | UK Geospatial Commission and Cabinet Office, National Underground Asset Register (NUAR): Economic Case Summary, 4 November 2021, savings from reduced utility strikes | The ground was always there. The record was not. |
| £3.4 billion; £347 million a year over 10 years; £240 million a year | The NUAR economic case put the total monetised benefit at £3.4 billion, or £347 million a year over ten years, of which £240 million a year was reduced strikes. | UK Geospatial Commission and Cabinet Office, National Underground Asset Register (NUAR): Economic Case Summary, 4 November 2021 | The ground was always there. The record was not. |
| at least 25% over the current, or at least 50% over the original | Under the Nunn-McCurdy provisions now in US law, a critical breach is a unit cost increase of at least 25% over the current baseline estimate, or at least 50% over the original. | 10 U.S.C. 4371 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| at least 15% over the current, or at least 30% over the original | Under the Nunn-McCurdy provisions now in US law, a significant breach is a unit cost increase of at least 15% over the current baseline estimate, or at least 30% over the original. | 10 U.S.C. 4371 | Every programme performs well against a baseline it can move |
| 6 days | In Obrascon the weather had been exceptional and had delayed the works, and the six days attributable to it were lost because no timely notice had been given; a progress report saying rain had affected the works was held to be nowhere near a notice under Sub-Clause 20.1. | Obrascon Huarte Lain SA v Her Majesty’s Attorney General for Gibraltar [2014] EWHC 1028 (TCC)Obrascon Huarte Lain SA v Her Majesty's Attorney General for Gibraltar [2014] EWHC 1028 (TCC), paragraphs 311 to 316 | An extension of time is tested against records made during the delay |
| 69% in 2012 to 77% in January 2016 | GAO's record of its 2012 recommendation notes that OMB's fiscal year 2017 budget document described the share of investments self-rated low or moderately low risk rising from 69% in 2012 to 77% in January 2016 as showing continued improvement, a rise the ratings cannot distinguish from raters relaxing. | GAO, Information Technology Dashboard: Opportunities Exist to Improve Transparency and Oversight of Investment Risk at Select Agencies, GAO-13-98, October 2012GAO's record of its 2012 recommendation, citing OMB's fiscal year 2017 budget document | A dashboard computed from your own beliefs is not information |
| 30 days | The European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States apply a 30-day payment rule to their own public bodies. | Directive 2011/7/EU on combating late payment in commercial transactionsDirective 2011/7/EU, Article 4; Procurement Act 2023, section 68; 5 CFR 1315.4 | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 4.25% repo; 3.75% reverse repo | The Saudi Central Bank publishes a repo rate of 4.25% and a reverse repo rate of 3.75%, both standing since December 2025. | Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), policy rates on the bank’s own front pageSaudi Central Bank policy rates read at sama.gov.sa | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| not exceeding 10% | Article 108 of the Saudi procurement regulations provides that the government authority may, not shall, disburse an advance payment not exceeding 10% of the total contract value against a bank guarantee equal to its value, recovered from each certificate at the same percentage starting with the first. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 108, read in the Arabic | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lenderAlso on What follows the certificate, and whenWarranty register builderPayment chain calculatorWhat a technical point is worth |
| 80 calendar days | Article 109 is written as 25 working days followed by 45 calendar days, which on a five-day week with no public holidays is 14 plus 21 plus 45: 80 calendar days from statement to cash with every office on time. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 109, read in the Arabic text published by the Ministry of Finance, paragraphs 2 to 5 | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lenderAlso on Payment chain calculatorHome |
| 10 and 15 working days | Under Article 109 of the Saudi procurement regulations, as the Arabic text reads, the consultant verifies the works and reports within ten working days, "عشرة أيام عمل", and the government agency raises the payment order to the Ministry within fifteen working days, "خمسة عشر يوم عمل". | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 109, read in the Arabic text published by the Ministry of Finance | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 40-five (45) working days | The Ministry of Finance's English translation of Article 109 paragraph 4 says the Ministry shall pay "within forty-five (45) working days maximum", a word not in the Arabic, which carried through the same conversion gives 63 calendar days for the Ministry and a chain of 98 days rather than 80. | Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement LawMinistry of Finance English translation of the Executive Regulations, Article 109 paragraph 4 | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 45 days | Under Article 109 the Ministry disburses the payment order within a period not exceeding forty-five days, "مدة لا تتجاوز خمسة وأربعين يوماً", a period in calendar days because the word عمل is absent from paragraph 4, and a returned payment order runs the period again from resubmission. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 109, read in the Arabic text published by the Ministry of Finance, paragraph 4 | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 60, 21, 45 and 45 days; capped at 20% | In place of interest the Saudi procurement law provides a claims route at Article 68, of 60 days to submit, 21 to acknowledge, 45 to decide and 45 more on appeal, capped at 20% of the contract value, with the Administrative Court beyond that. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionSaudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, Article 68, read in the Arabic | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lenderAlso on What follows the certificate, and whenWarranty register builderPayment chain calculatorWhat a technical point is worth |
| 5 to 10 working days | After an award is announced under the Saudi procurement law there is a standstill of 5 to 10 working days (Article 53). | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionSaudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law 2019, in the consolidated Arabic text published by the Ministry of Finance, Article 53 | The score that is not a number |
| 15 working days | A bidder may take a grievance to the agency and then to the committee under Article 86 of the Saudi procurement law, whose decisions bind the agency and which decides within 15 working days and may extend that by a similar period. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionSaudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law 2019, in the consolidated Arabic text published by the Ministry of Finance, Articles 86(3) and 87 | The score that is not a number |
| 4 days at each Eid | The Saudi Labour Law entitlement, on the human resources ministry's page for the business sector, is 4 days at Eid al-Fitr beginning the day after the 29th of Ramadan and 4 days at Eid al-Adha beginning on Arafat day, narrower than the civil service closures. | Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development, Holidays and Leaves, Labour Law entitlementsMinistry of Human Resources and Social Development, Holidays and Leaves, the ministry's own labour education page for the business sector | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lenderAlso on Payment chain calculator |
| 4 conventions | The English translation of the Saudi procurement law opens with a note declaring four conventions it applies: singular includes plural, masculine includes feminine, present includes future, and person covers natural and legal persons; rendering a day as a working day is not among them. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Royal Decree M/128Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Royal Decree M/128, 2019, English translation, front-matter translation note | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lender |
| 120 days after publication | The 2019 Saudi procurement law and its regulations are replaced by the law gazetted on 4 September 2026 when it takes effect, 120 days after publication. | Government Tenders and Procurement Law, new law published in Umm Al-Qura 22/3/1448 (4 September 2026), ArabicGovernment Tenders and Procurement Law, new law published in Umm Al-Qura 22/3/1448 (4 September 2026) | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lenderAlso on The score that is not a numberWhat follows the certificate, and whenWarranty register builderPayment chain calculatorWhat a technical point is worthAsset lifecycle method |
| 117 pages | The Saudi procurement law contains no interest provision: the word فائدة does not appear anywhere in the 117 pages of the law and its regulations. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionSaudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, searched in full in the Arabic | The payment chain is a loan, and the contractor is the lenderAlso on What follows the certificate, and whenWarranty register builderPayment chain calculatorWhat a technical point is worth |
| 0 of 28 pages | No page of the 28 in UFGS 01 78 23, the US Department of Defense's operation and maintenance data specification, carries a reliability parameter: the words reliability, failure rate, mean time between failures, service life and expected life do not appear, while the manufacturer's repair work-hours appear on page 16. | UFGS 01 78 23, Operation and Maintenance Data, Unified Facilities Guide Specifications, May 2023 with Change 4, August 2026UFGS 01 78 23, Operation and Maintenance Data, May 2023, Change 4 of August 2026, 28 pages, read in full; repair work-hours at 1.6.6.4 | Reliability can be specified like mass. Building owners do not. |
| 4 revisions since 2023 | UFGS 01 78 23, the buildings sector's considered statement of what a contractor owes an owner at handover, is maintained across three services and has been revised four times since 2023, and reliability is not on it. | UFGS 01 78 23, Operation and Maintenance Data, Unified Facilities Guide Specifications, May 2023 with Change 4, August 2026UFGS 01 78 23, Operation and Maintenance Data, May 2023, Change 4 of August 2026 | Reliability can be specified like mass. Building owners do not. |
| between 70 and 85% | The World Bank publishes a minimum technical score normally between 70 and 85%. | World Bank, Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, seventh edition, September 2025World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, seventh edition, September 2025, Annex X | Three award rules make you disclose how the criteria are weighed. None makes you defend it.Also on What a technical point is worth |
| 90/10; 70 to 80 against 30 to 20; 60 to 50 against 40 to 50 | The World Bank publishes quality and cost weightings of 90/10 for highly complex assignments, 70 to 80 against 30 to 20 for moderate complexity, and 60 to 50 against 40 to 50 for routine work. | World Bank, Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, seventh edition, September 2025World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, seventh edition, September 2025, Annex X | Three award rules make you disclose how the criteria are weighed. None makes you defend it.Also on What a technical point is worth |
| four of the 14 points | The DECM tracker’s own archive records four of the 14 points of DCMA’s 14-point schedule assessment deleted in 2019 with reasons. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet Deleted Metrics Archive | Schedule logic check |
| 18 named guidelines; 4-year cycle | DCMA Business Practice 4 requires surveillance to cover 18 named guidelines, including guideline 6, using all associated Standard DECMs over a four-year cycle. | DCMA EVMS Business Practice 4, EVMS Surveillance, revised 4 November 2025 | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y = 0% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A204b, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of incomplete non-LOE tasks and milestones with open starts or finishes (dangling logic) at 0%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A204b | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y ≤ 10% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A205a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of incomplete tasks and milestones with at least one lag in predecessor logic at no more than 10%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A205a | Schedule logic check |
| X = 0 | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A208a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the count of summary tasks with predecessors or successors at 0. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A208a | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y = 0% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A209a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of incomplete tasks and milestones with hard constraints at 0%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A209a | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y = 0% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A210a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of incomplete LOE tasks with at least one non-LOE successor at 0%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A210a | Schedule logic check |
| 20% | Of the 14-point test on high total float only 06A211a remains in the current DECM: a manual, sampled judgement of whether the rationale for high float is acceptable, at 20%, with no percentage-of-activities test. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, 06A211a | Schedule logic check |
| X = 0 | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A212a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the count of out-of-sequence conditions at 0. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A212a | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y ≤ 5% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A501a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of tasks and milestones without baseline dates at no more than 5%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A501a | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y ≤ 5% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A505a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of in-progress tasks with no actual start or with an actual finish at no more than 5%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A505a | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y ≤ 5% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A505b, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of complete tasks with no actual finish at no more than 5%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A505b | Schedule logic check |
| X/Y ≤ 5% | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A506a, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the share of tasks with an actual start or finish after the status date at no more than 5%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A506a | Schedule logic check |
| X = 0 | The published threshold for DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics v8.1 test 06A506b, which the schedule logic check applies to the file, puts the count of incomplete tasks with a forecast start or finish on or before the status date at 0. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet EVMS Metrics Tracker, guideline 06, 06A506b | Schedule logic check |
| 2% of relationships | The retired 14-point test on leads (negative lags) allowed at most 2% of relationships, and DCMA’s archive says leads are part of the out-of-sequence test, 06A212a. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet Deleted Metrics Archive, July 2019 | Schedule logic check |
| 10% of activities | The retired 14-point test on missing predecessors or successors allowed at most 10% of activities, retired in January 2019 as covered by dangling logic, 06A204b, at 0%. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet Deleted Metrics Archive, January 2019 | Schedule logic check |
| 15% of relationships | The retired 14-point test on the start-to-start and finish-to-finish share allowed at most 15% of relationships, retired in January 2019 because the archive says dangling logic, lags and leads are sufficient to identify the misuse. | DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM), metrics tracking and data artifact list v8.1DCMA EVMS Compliance Metrics (DECM) v8.1, sheet Deleted Metrics Archive, January 2019 | Schedule logic check |
| 30 calendar days; 60 at most; 30 days verification | Directive 2011/7/EU, Article 4: where the debtor is a public authority the payment period may not exceed 30 calendar days from the invoice, 60 at most where objectively justified, and any verification procedure may not exceed 30 days. | Directive 2011/7/EU on combating late payment in commercial transactionsDirective 2011/7/EU, Article 4 | Payment chain calculator |
| 42 days | Under FIDIC 1999 financing charges run from the due date (14.8), and the Guidance offers 42 days as the alternative. | Tyson, FIDIC 1999 Red Book, Clause 14 Contract Price and Payment, clause commentary, International Construction Knowledge HubFIDIC Conditions of Contract for Construction 1999, Sub-Clause 14.8 and the Guidance, via Tyson’s clause commentary | Payment chain calculator |
| 28 days | Under FIDIC 1999, as Tyson’s clause commentary quotes it, the Engineer has 28 days to issue an Interim Payment Certificate “which states the amount the Engineer fairly determines to be due”, so a statement is not thrown out because parts of it are disputed. | Tyson, FIDIC 1999 Red Book, Clause 14 Contract Price and Payment, clause commentary, International Construction Knowledge HubFIDIC Conditions of Contract for Construction 1999, Sub-Clause 14.6, via Tyson’s clause commentary | Payment chain calculator |
| 30 days | Under section 68 of the Procurement Act 2023 every public contract carries an implied term that sums due are paid within 30 days of a valid invoice, a term restricting it is without effect, and regulations may change the period but not beyond 30 days. | Procurement Act 2023, section 68, implied payment terms in public contractsProcurement Act 2023, section 68 | Payment chain calculator |
| 30 days; 7 days | Under the US federal rule, 5 CFR 1315.4, payment is due 30 days after receipt of a proper invoice where the contract does not say otherwise, an improper invoice is returned within 7 days, and interest is paid automatically when payment is late. | 5 CFR 1315.4, Prompt payment standards, Office of Management and Budget5 CFR 1315.4 | Payment chain calculator |
| 100% | The World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, Annex X paragraph 4.8, give the lowest offered price a financial score of 100%, with other prices scored inversely proportional to them. | World Bank, Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, seventh edition, September 2025World Bank, Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers, seventh edition, September 2025, Annex X, paragraph 4.8 | What a technical point is worth |
Handover & Transition
70 figures
| Figure | Claim | Source | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| one-third | Under the ANSI Essential Requirements, balance is quantified by a historical criterion: no single interest category more than one-third of a consensus body for a safety-related standard, or a majority otherwise. | ANSI Essential Requirements: Due process requirements for American National StandardsANSI Essential Requirements, January 2025 edition, section 2.3 | American National Standard |
| 15 working days | Under Saudi procurement law the final guarantee is lodged within 15 working days of notice of the award. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionGovernment Tenders and Procurement Law 2019, Article 61(1) and (4) | Taking over |
| 5% of the contract value | Under Saudi procurement law the final guarantee, which does the work of a performance security, is lodged at 5% of the contract value within 15 working days of notice of the award and kept until the contractor has performed its obligations and the project is finally received. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionGovernment Tenders and Procurement Law 2019, Article 61(1) and (4); law gazetted 4 September 2026, Article 59 | Taking overAlso on What follows the certificate, and whenWarranty register builder |
| Five of the seven conditions | Five of the seven ISO 55001 Clause 7 conditions are states of an organisation rather than documents, so a contract that can specify only documents and events cannot require them. | ISO 55001:2024, asset management system requirementsISO 55001:2024, Clause 7 | Operational readiness |
| two conditions out of seven | A conventional handover pack satisfies the documented information and the data requirements of ISO 55001 Clause 7: two conditions out of seven, and the two that are easiest to certify. | ISO 55001:2024, asset management system requirementsISO 55001:2024, Clause 7 | Operational readiness |
| 5% of the final value of the completed works | Jordan’s unified construction contract requires, in its instructions to tenderers, a defects remedy guarantee of 5% of the final value of the completed works when the Taking-Over Certificate is received, and returns the performance security when it is lodged. | Jordan Ministry of Public Works and Housing, Unified Construction Contract for Construction Projects 2010, second amended edition 2013, ArabicJordan, Unified Construction Contract 2010, second amended edition 2013, Instructions to Tenderers 5-2 | Taking over |
| 5% | The particular conditions of Jordan’s unified construction contract allow the performance security to be reduced to 5% in place of the exchange for a defects remedy guarantee at taking over. | Jordan Ministry of Public Works and Housing, Unified Construction Contract for Construction Projects 2010, second amended edition 2013, ArabicJordan, Unified Construction Contract 2010, second amended edition 2013, Particular Conditions 4.2 | Taking over |
| half the retention | Jordan’s unified construction contract certifies half the retention at taking over and the balance after the last Defects Notification Period. | Jordan Ministry of Public Works and Housing, Unified Construction Contract for Construction Projects 2010, second amended edition 2013, ArabicJordan, Unified Construction Contract 2010, second amended edition 2013, General Conditions 14.9 | Taking over |
| 2,185 new | CSI states that MasterFormat 2026 introduces 2,185 new listings. | Construction Specifications Institute, on MasterFormat 2026, as quoted | The project crosswalk reaches capitalisation. What survives it? |
| 617 reorganized listings | CSI states that MasterFormat 2026 introduces 617 reorganized listings, each of them a mapping event for anybody whose cost codes are built on them. | Construction Specifications Institute, on MasterFormat 2026, as quoted | The project crosswalk reaches capitalisation. What survives it? |
| 1 year | Under FIDIC 2017 the Performance Certificate, which Sub-Clause 11.9 makes the document that constitutes acceptance, follows the Defects Notification Period, which is one year where the Contract Data states no different period. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyTyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard Kennedy, page 3 | Under FIDIC, taking over comes before acceptanceAlso on What follows the certificate, and whenWarranty register builderDefects Notification PeriodHandover & Transition |
| 573,000 real property assets | For fiscal year 2019, independent public accountants reported serious control issues in the life cycle of real property, adding, disposing, reconciling, valuing and counting, across a Department of Defense portfolio of 573,000 real property assets, as GAO-20-615 records. | GAO, Defense Real Property: DOD-Wide Strategy Needed to Address Control Issues and Improve Reliability of Records, GAO-20-615, September 2020 | The project crosswalk reaches capitalisation. What survives it? |
| 13 | Thirteen post occupancy evaluations were commissioned by GSA from an external institute in 2018 and 2019, without a policy governing which projects were chosen or how findings reached the next project team. | US Government Accountability Office, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, GAO-20-144, December 2019 | Completion describes the asset. Readiness describes the owner. |
| none | Over the four years from 2014 to 2017, GSA conducted no post occupancy evaluation on any completed major construction project. | US Government Accountability Office, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, GAO-20-144, December 2019 | Completion describes the asset. Readiness describes the owner. |
| over 10,000 energy-related deficiencies | The commissioning work across the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory sample surfaced over 10,000 energy-related deficiencies, in buildings that had either been accepted as complete or were being operated as if nothing was wrong. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever gets |
| $0.30 per square foot | In the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis, median commissioning cost was $0.30 per square foot for existing buildings. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever gets |
| 16% | In the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis, median whole-building energy savings from commissioning were 16% for existing buildings. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever gets |
| 1.1 years | In the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis, the median simple payback of commissioning was 1.1 years for existing buildings. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever gets |
| $1.16 per square foot | In the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis, median commissioning cost was $1.16 per square foot for new construction. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever gets |
| 0.4% | In the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis, median commissioning cost for new construction was 0.4% of total construction cost. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement check |
| 13% | In the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis, median whole-building energy savings from commissioning were 13% for new construction. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever gets |
| 4.2 years | In the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis, the median simple payback of commissioning was 4.2 years for new construction. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement check |
| 643 buildings | The 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory meta-analysis of commissioning covered 643 buildings. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement check |
| 99m square feet | The 643 buildings in the 2009 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory commissioning meta-analysis covered 99m square feet. | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Building Commissioning: A Golden Opportunity, 2009 | The only test the building ever gets |
| $0.25 per square foot | In the 2018 cohort of the 2020 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory update, median existing-building commissioning cost was $0.25 per square foot in 2017 dollars. | Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020, Energy and Buildings 227 | The only test the building ever gets |
| 2.2 years | In the 2018 cohort of the 2020 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory update, the median payback of existing-building commissioning was 2.2 years. | Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020, Energy and Buildings 227 | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement check |
| 6.0% | The 2020 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory update found median energy savings for existing-building commissioning of 6.0% in the 2018 cohort, which is dominated by utility-sponsored programmes that show systematically lower savings than owner-initiated projects. | Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020, Energy and Buildings 227 | The only test the building ever gets |
| 6.4% | The 2020 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory update found median energy savings for existing-building commissioning of 6.4% across all data, in a sample the study states is not representative of the building stock. | Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020, Energy and Buildings 227 | The only test the building ever gets |
| roughly 1,500 buildings | The 2020 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory update drew on roughly 1,500 buildings across three decades, a sample its authors state is not representative of the building stock because projects that report data tend to be the better-run ones. | Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020, Energy and Buildings 227 | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement check |
| at least 10 months | LEED v4 requires the commissioning authority to have documented experience running from early design through at least 10 months of occupancy. | USGBC, LEED v4 BD+C, Fundamental Commissioning and Verification prerequisiteUSGBC, LEED v4 BD+C, Fundamental Commissioning and Verification prerequisite | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement checkOperational readiness check |
| 20,000 square feet | Under LEED v4, for projects under 20,000 square feet a qualified member of the project team itself may act as the commissioning authority, an allowance LEED v5 no longer carries. | USGBC, LEED v4 BD+C, Fundamental Commissioning and Verification prerequisiteUSGBC, LEED v4 BD+C, Fundamental Commissioning and Verification prerequisite | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement check |
| two projects | LEED v5 asks the commissioning provider for experience on two projects of equal or larger scope and complexity. | USGBC, LEED v5 Building Design and Construction rating system, November 2025 editionLEED v5 BD+C rating system, November 2025 edition, EAp3 and EAc5 | The only test the building ever getsAlso on Commissioning arrangement check |
| seven levels | NASA requires a project work breakdown structure to correlate exactly through seven levels to the financial accounting structure, a requirement written for the life of the project. | NASA Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Handbook, NASA/SP-2016-3404/REV1 | The project crosswalk reaches capitalisation. What survives it? |
| $15.8 billion a year | NIST GCR 04-867 estimated the annual cost of inadequate interoperability in the US capital facilities industry at $15.8 billion a year in 2002 dollars, from survey-based 2002 data covering the United States only and excluding residential buildings and transportation infrastructure. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004, Table 1 as reproduced in Chapman, Inadequate Interoperability: A Closer Look at the Costs, ISARC 2005 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| $4.1 billion | In NIST GCR 04-867, the annual cost of inadequate interoperability in construction was $4.1 billion in 2002 dollars, printed as 4.07 billion in the figure on the same page. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004, Table 1 as reproduced in Chapman, Inadequate Interoperability: A Closer Look at the Costs, ISARC 2005 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| 0.90 billion | In NIST GCR 04-867, 0.90 billion of the 4.07 billion annual cost of inadequate interoperability in construction fell on owners, in 2002 dollars. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004, Table 1 as reproduced in Chapman, Inadequate Interoperability: A Closer Look at the Costs, ISARC 2005 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| $9.1 billion | In NIST GCR 04-867, the annual cost of inadequate interoperability in operations and maintenance was $9.1 billion in 2002 dollars, more than planning, design and construction combined, printed as 9.09 billion in the figure on the same page. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004, Table 1 as reproduced in Chapman, Inadequate Interoperability: A Closer Look at the Costs, ISARC 2005 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| $9.0 billion | Of the operations and maintenance cost of inadequate interoperability in NIST GCR 04-867, $9.0 billion a year in 2002 dollars fell on owners and operators, after everyone else had gone, printed as 9.03 billion in the figure on the same page. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004, Table 1 as reproduced in Chapman, Inadequate Interoperability: A Closer Look at the Costs, ISARC 2005 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| $2.7 billion | In NIST GCR 04-867, the annual cost of inadequate interoperability in planning and design was $2.7 billion in 2002 dollars, printed as 2.66 billion in the figure on the same page. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004, Table 1 as reproduced in Chapman, Inadequate Interoperability: A Closer Look at the Costs, ISARC 2005 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| 0.72 billion | In NIST GCR 04-867, 0.72 billion of the 2.66 billion annual cost of inadequate interoperability in planning, design and engineering fell on owners, in 2002 dollars. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004, Table 1 as reproduced in Chapman, Inadequate Interoperability: A Closer Look at the Costs, ISARC 2005 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| $4.8 billion | Within the $9 billion that fell on owners and operators, NIST GCR 04-867 attributes $4.8 billion to what the study calls operations and maintenance information verification. | Gallaher, O'Connor, Dettbarn and Gilday, Cost Analysis of Inadequate Interoperability in the U.S. Capital Facilities Industry, NIST GCR 04-867, 2004 | Handover is where the cost lands, and the Gulf is now taking delivery |
| 12 months | Under US budget guidance, a post occupancy evaluation should generally be conducted twelve months after a project is occupied, to establish how accurately it met its objectives and to improve the capital programming process through lessons learned. | US Government Accountability Office, Federal Buildings: GSA Can Improve Its Communication about and Assessment of Major Construction Projects, GAO-20-144, December 2019, on the Office of Management and Budget position on post occupancy evaluations | Completion describes the asset. Readiness describes the owner. |
| 10 years | On Pinsent Masons' reading, Article 29 of the Implementing Regulations of the Saudi Building Code Application Law makes the supervising designer and the contractor jointly responsible for compensating the owner for ten years, running from the date of issuance of the occupancy certificate, for total or partial demolition of what they built and for every hidden defect that threatens the durability and safety of the building. | Pinsent Masons, Saudi Arabia's Civil Code: need to know for construction projects, quoting Article 29 of the Implementing Regulations of the Saudi Building Code Application Law | Under FIDIC, taking over comes before acceptance |
| 10 years | In the UAE the civil code has long held contractors and consultants liable for ten years where a structure suffers total or partial collapse or a defect threatens its stability or safety, with no proof of fault required. | Kennedys, UAE Civil Code 2026: decennial liability and subcontractors | Under FIDIC, taking over comes before acceptance |
| 5 years | Kennedys notes that in the UAE the limitation period for claims under commercial construction contracts is five years, so a recovery action against a subcontractor may be time-barred well before a decennial claim is brought against the contractor. | Kennedys, UAE Civil Code 2026: decennial liability and subcontractors | Under FIDIC, taking over comes before acceptance |
| 2 years | Under the FIDIC Conditions of Contract, 1999 edition, Sub-Clause 11.3, the Defects Notification Period shall not be extended by more than two years, an extension being available wherever the defect or damage affected the Works. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 1999 edition, Sub-Clause 11.3 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 28 days | Under the FIDIC Conditions of Contract, 1999 edition, Sub-Clause 11.9, the Engineer issues the Performance Certificate within 28 days after the latest of the expiry dates of the Defects Notification Periods, or as soon thereafter as the Contractor has supplied all the Contractor’s Documents and completed and tested all the Works. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 1999 edition, Sub-Clause 11.9 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 365 days | The FIDIC 1999 conditions supply no fallback Defects Notification Period, and 365 days is only the figure the sample Appendix to Tender prints. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 1999 edition, Sub-Clause 1.1.3.7 and the sample Appendix to Tender | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 28 days | Under the FIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.9, a deemed Performance Certificate comes into effect a further 28 days after it is deemed issued. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.9 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 2 years | Under the FIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.3, an extension may not carry the Defects Notification Period more than two years beyond the expiry of the period stated in the Contract Data. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.3 | What follows the certificate, and whenAlso on Warranty register builderTurnover package composerDefects Notification PeriodAsset lifecycle method |
| 1 year | Tyson’s commentary on FIDIC 2017 notes that a Part does not exist when the Contract Data is written, so a Part gets one year even where the Works or Section it sits in was agreed to be longer. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 1.1.27, as read in Tyson’s clause commentary | Warranty register builder |
| 28 days | Under the FIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.9, the Performance Certificate is deemed issued if the Engineer has not issued one within 28 days of the Defects Notification Period expiring and the Contractor’s Documents being supplied. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.9 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 2 years | Under the FIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.10, liability for unfulfilled obligations in respect of Plant is limited to two years after the Defects Notification Period for that Plant ends, unless the law provides otherwise or in cases of fraud, gross negligence, deliberate default or reckless misconduct. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.10 | What follows the certificate, and whenAlso on Warranty register builder |
| 28 days | Under the FIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.7, the contractor’s right of access extends to 28 days after issue of the Performance Certificate, where under the 1999 edition it ended on issue. | Tyson, FIDIC 2017: Clause 11, Defects After Taking Over, Howard KennedyFIDIC Conditions of Contract, 2017 edition, Sub-Clause 11.7 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 20-year operation service period | The FIDIC Gold Book is a design-build-operate form with a twenty-year operation service period, and is a different regime from the defects periods the calendar computes. | FIDIC Gold Book, design-build-operate form | What follows the certificate, and when |
| not less than 1 year | Under Article 107 of the superseded 2007 Implementing Regulations, Minister of Finance Decision No. 362 of 1428H, a project in public work contracts remains under the contractor’s warranty for not less than one year from the preliminary hand-over, and for unfinished works from the date of their acceptance. | Implementing Regulations of the Government Tender and Procurement Law, Minister of Finance Decision No. 362 of 1428H, Article 107 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 10 years | Under Article 99(1) of the Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, unless a shorter period is agreed, the contractor warrants against destruction of the works, in whole or in part, for ten years from initial delivery, where the destruction arises from a flaw in execution. | Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement LawExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 99(1) | What follows the certificate, and whenAlso on Warranty register builderPayment chain calculatorWhat a technical point is worth |
| not less than 10% | Article 111 of the Executive Regulations pays a final statement of not less than 10% in public construction contracts after initial receipt. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 111, consolidated Arabic text, third edition | What follows the certificate, and whenAlso on Warranty register builder |
| 5%; 15 working days | Article 59 of the new Government Tenders and Procurement Law keeps the final guarantee at 5% of the contract value, lodged within 15 working days of notice of the award and held until the contractor has performed its obligations and the project is finally received. | Government Tenders and Procurement Law, new law published in Umm Al-Qura 22/3/1448 (4 September 2026), ArabicGovernment Tenders and Procurement Law, Umm Al-Qura 22/3/1448, Article 59 | What follows the certificate, and whenAlso on Warranty register builderPayment chain calculatorWhat a technical point is worth |
| 15 days | Under Article 127(2) of the Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, the Government Authority forms a committee to start preview and receipt of works within fifteen days of the contractor’s notification of completion. | Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement LawExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 127(2) | What follows the certificate, and when |
| not less than 1 year | Under Article 128(1) of the Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, in the enacted Arabic, the project remains under the contractor’s warranty for not less than one year from initial receipt, which is the statutory minimum and not necessarily the warranty end. | Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement LawExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, Article 128(1) | What follows the certificate, and whenAlso on Warranty register builderPayment chain calculatorWhat a technical point is worthAsset lifecycle method |
| 90 days | Under the JBCC Principal Building Agreement, edition 6.2, clause 21.1, the defects liability period ends ninety calendar days from practical completion, as stated in the Contract Data, a figure frequently amended upward. | JBCC Advisory Note 21.0, Defects Liability Period and Final Completion, edition 6.2JBCC Principal Building Agreement, edition 6.2, clause 21.1 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 5 years | Under the JBCC Principal Building Agreement, edition 6.2, clause 22.1, the latent defects liability period commences at the start of the construction period and ends five years from the certified date of final completion. | JBCC Advisory Note 21.0, Defects Liability Period and Final Completion, edition 6.2JBCC Principal Building Agreement, edition 6.2, clause 22.1 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| more than doubled; halving | The new-construction medians are from the 2009 study, whose sample the 2020 update more than doubled, halving the savings estimate for existing-building work. | Crowe et al., Building Commissioning Costs and Savings Across Three Decades and 1,500 North American Buildings, LBNL, 2020 | Commissioning arrangement check |
| 18 months | USGBC’s table of certification deadlines gives a split review 18 months after the LEED v4 and v4.1 BD+C certification sunset to submit for construction review. | USGBC, LEED certification deadlines | Commissioning arrangement check |
| at least one design meeting | The LEED v5 prerequisite requires the commissioning provider to attend at least one design meeting on mechanical, electrical and plumbing and one on the envelope, to discuss review comments and commissioning. | USGBC, LEED v5 Building Design and Construction rating system, November 2025 editionUSGBC, LEED v5 BD+C, November 2025 edition, EAp3 Fundamental Commissioning | Commissioning arrangement check |
| 50% and 100% construction completion | The LEED v5 prerequisite requires the commissioning provider to attend milestone meetings at 50% and 100% construction completion. | USGBC, LEED v5 Building Design and Construction rating system, November 2025 editionUSGBC, LEED v5 BD+C, November 2025 edition, EAp3 Fundamental Commissioning | Commissioning arrangement check |
| at least 10% | The LEED v5 prerequisite requires the commissioning provider to perform a sample review, at least 10%, of completed contractor documentation for quality assurance and quality control, the one place in the prerequisite where verification of the contractor’s own records is quantified. | USGBC, LEED v5 Building Design and Construction rating system, November 2025 editionUSGBC, LEED v5 BD+C, November 2025 edition, EAp3 Fundamental Commissioning | Commissioning arrangement check |
| 52 weeks | Under the NEC4 Engineering and Construction Contract, clause 43.2 and the Contract Data, the defects date is a period in weeks after Completion of the whole of the works, typically 52. | NEC, Defining and managing defects in the ECCNEC4 Engineering and Construction Contract, clause 43.2 | What follows the certificate, and when |
| 2 weeks | Under the NEC4 Engineering and Construction Contract, where the Contract Data states the client is not required to take over the works before the Completion Date, the client takes over no later than two weeks after Completion. | NEC, Defining and managing defects in the ECC | What follows the certificate, and when |
Operations & Asset Management
38 figures
| Figure | Claim | Source | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.6 years | In the ASHRAE database the 209 centrifugal chillers still in service have a mean age of 17.6 years, ages running from 3 to 41, which is how old they are so far and not how long they will last. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Useful lifeAlso on One asset, four records |
| 25.2 years | In the ASHRAE database the 30 centrifugal chillers that were replaced lived a mean of 25.2 years, lives running from 7 to 42. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Useful lifeAlso on ProposalsOne asset, four recordsThree lives for the same assetRenewal profile |
| 345 reporting buildings | The ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database holds service life data by equipment type from 345 reporting buildings. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Useful lifeAlso on Three lives for the same assetAsset register packageRenewal profile |
| 76 m at Riyadh, 69 m at Dammam, 85 m at Abha, 97 m at Hail and 116 m at Tabuk | Applying EPSG transformation 1111, the same latitude and longitude read in Ain el Abd 1970 and plotted in WGS 84 land 76 m apart at Riyadh, 69 m at Dammam, 85 m at Abha, 97 m at Hail and 116 m at Tabuk, each displaced towards the north-west; these are offsets for one mechanism only, not measured errors of any plan, and they set no upper limit. | Projects Advisors calculation from EPSG transformation 1111 at five city coordinates, height ignored | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 0 to 100 | In BUILDER, the Department of Defense standard for facility condition assessment built by the US Army Corps of Engineers' Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, each component carries a Condition Index on a 0 to 100 scale. | BUILDER Sustainment Management System, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory | Nobody will give you a deterioration curve |
| −143 m, −236 m and +7 m | EPSG transformation 1111 applies geocentric translations of −143 m, −236 m and +7 m from the International 1924 ellipsoid to WGS 84. | IOGP, EPSG Geodetic Parameter Dataset, transformation 1111, Ain el Abd to WGS 84 (2) | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 18 m | EPSG 1111, the published transformation from Ain el Abd 1970 to WGS 84 for onshore Saudi Arabia, states its own accuracy as 18 m. | IOGP, EPSG Geodetic Parameter Dataset, transformation 1111, Ain el Abd to WGS 84 (2) | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 1.1bn square feet | ERDC's BUILDER fact sheet, first published in 2012, describes an Army estate of over 165,000 buildings and 1.1bn square feet. | BUILDER Sustainment Management System, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory | Nobody will give you a deterioration curve |
| over 165,000 buildings | ERDC's BUILDER fact sheet, first published in 2012, describes an Army estate of over 165,000 buildings. | BUILDER Sustainment Management System, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory | Nobody will give you a deterioration curve |
| roughly 55% | ERDC's BUILDER fact sheet, first published in 2012, describes an Army estate of over 165,000 buildings, roughly 55% of whose real property maintenance funds go on maintaining them. | BUILDER Sustainment Management System, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory | Nobody will give you a deterioration curve |
| 48 cm and 56 cm | Comparing boundaries digitised from analogue cadastral maps with survey records in one North Macedonian and one Slovenian district, Fetai and co-authors found a positional RMSE of 48 cm in the North Macedonian district and 56 cm in the Slovenian one, arising from scanning, georeferencing and vectorising the paper maps. | Fetai, Tekavec, Kosmatin Fras and Lisec, Inconsistencies in Cadastral Boundary Data: Digitisation and Maintenance, Land 11(12), 2022 | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 26 m² and 23 m² | In Fetai and co-authors' comparison of digitised analogue cadastral maps with survey records, the positional error carried into parcel areas as an RMSE of 26 m² in the North Macedonian district and 23 m² in the Slovenian one. | Fetai, Tekavec, Kosmatin Fras and Lisec, Inconsistencies in Cadastral Boundary Data: Digitisation and Maintenance, Land 11(12), 2022 | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| about US$3.82tn | Summed from the United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, gross fixed capital formation in the six Gulf Cooperation Council states came to about US$3.82tn in constant 2020 dollars over 2016 to 2024, a flow of investment spending over nine years and not the value of what those countries own. | United Nations Statistics Division, National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, gross fixed capital formation in constant 2020 US dollars, 2016 to 2024; the total is the sum of the six country series, calculated by Projects Advisors | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| 12 national societies | The GFMAM position statement on asset management maturity was agreed by 12 national societies, and it says that conformance to the requirements of ISO 55001 may not deliver all the value desired by the organisation's stakeholders. | GFMAM, Asset Management Maturity: A Position Statement, second edition, September 2021 | Conformance is not maturity, and the body that says so is selling nothing |
| 3 years | IPSAS 33 grants a first-time adopter of accrual basis IPSAS a transitional relief of three years during which it need not recognise or measure certain classes of asset, including property, plant and equipment, to allow time to develop reliable models for recognition and measurement. | IPSAS 33, first-time adoption of accrual basis IPSAS | Accrual conversion gave three years. It did not give anyone a register.Also on Asset registerCorporate accountant |
| 181 Swiss francs for 36 pages | On ISO's own description, ISO 15686-8, which it lists at 181 Swiss francs for 36 pages, gives the shape of a service-life calculation whose every term the buyer must supply. | ISO 15686-8:2008, Buildings and constructed assets, service-life planning, part 8: reference service life and service-life estimationISO 15686-8:2008, abstract and catalogue entry on ISO's website | Nobody will give you a deterioration curve |
| KD 606m | In Kuwait's budget for 2025/26, group 327 within the purchase of non-current assets, a capital chapter, covers construction projects and maintenance, and its maintenance lines total KD 606m; appropriations are not spending. | Kuwait Ministry of Finance, State Budget 2025/2026, chapter 32, group 327 | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| KD 234m | Kuwait's budget for 2025/26 records maintenance within goods and services, a current chapter, as item 2223 at KD 234m; it is one classification shown as an example, not a benchmark, and appropriations are not spending. | Kuwait Ministry of Finance, State Budget 2025/2026, chapter 22, item 2223 | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| three distinct records | Saudi Ministry of Finance guidance for the accrual conversion asks a government entity for three distinct records: a fixed asset register built for reporting, a register of the assets of projects under execution, and a control register for items that meet the definition of property, plant and equipment but fall below the capitalisation threshold. | Saudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, ArabicMinistry of Finance, comprehensive guide for the inventory and valuation of assets of government entities, second edition, page 35; and Frequently Asked Questions Guide for the Asset Inventory, Stocktaking and Valuation Initiative in Government Entities, first edition, June 2024 | An entity is asked for four asset registers and builds one |
| one electronic copy, one complete original and six printed copies | The Ministry of Finance's standard construction contract requires as-built drawings to be submitted in editable digital format, CAD and DWF, with one electronic copy, one complete original and six printed copies before any completion certificate. | Ministry of Finance, standard contract for general construction, approved by decision 3652 of 28/08/1441H as amended, clauses 10, 28 and 104 | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| two paragraphs | The Deterioration models section of the World Road Association's free Asset Management Manual is two paragraphs long, and it publishes no deterioration curve, no coefficient and no table. | PIARC Asset Management Manual, World Road AssociationPIARC Asset Management Manual, 2.4.4, deterioration models | Nobody will give you a deterioration curve |
| 5 years | Under the Saudi Companies Law, claims against a liquidator are barred five years after the company's deletion from the commercial register, except for forgery and fraud. | Companies Law, Royal Decree M/132 of 1/12/1443H, Articles 253, 257 and 259 | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 8.8% of GDP | Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics reports consumption of fixed capital for 2024 equal to 8.8% of GDP, a statistical estimate of wear and obsolescence that is not maintenance spending, not the cost of renewal and not a budget line anybody pays. | General Authority for Statistics, Annual National Accounts Publication 2024, pages 1 and 2 | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| SAR 4,703bn | Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics reports consumption of fixed capital for 2024 equal to 8.8% of GDP, with GDP itself given as SAR 4,703bn. | General Authority for Statistics, Annual National Accounts Publication 2024, pages 1 and 2 | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| SAR 1,441bn | Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics reports gross fixed capital formation of SAR 1,441bn for 2024. | General Authority for Statistics, Annual National Accounts Publication 2024, pages 1 and 2 | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| roughly SAR 1.03tn | On the General Authority for Statistics' published figures for gross fixed capital formation and consumption of fixed capital, Saudi Arabia's net fixed capital formation for 2024 was roughly SAR 1.03tn. | Projects Advisors calculation from the General Authority for Statistics, Annual National Accounts Publication 2024, pages 1 and 2 | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| up to 3 years | During first-time adoption under Saudi PSAS 33, an entity may take up to three years to recognise and measure property, plant and equipment it did not recognise under its previous basis. | Ministry of Finance, Saudi Public Sector Accounting Standard 33, First-time Adoption, 2024 edition, paragraphs 21, 23, 24 and 36 | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| more than 3 million parcels | On 8 June 2026 the Minister of Municipalities and Housing announced that more than 3 million parcels had been declared for registration in the Saudi real estate register. | Ministry of Municipalities and Housing, announcement of 8 June 2026 | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 1 million records | On 8 June 2026 the Minister of Municipalities and Housing announced the Saudi real estate register's first 1 million records, and named expansion to all cities and regions as the next phase. | Ministry of Municipalities and Housing, announcement of 8 June 2026 | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 2% of the area and no more than 100 m² | Under the Saudi real estate registration regulations, where the area on the ground differs from the deed, the deed area is registered if the difference is within a tolerance, which in urban zones is 2% of the area and no more than 100 m². | Real Estate General Authority, Implementing Regulations of the Real Estate Registration Law | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| 25 cm | The Saudi real estate register's own target for imagery-based mapping in urban zones is an absolute horizontal accuracy of 25 cm. | Real Estate General Authority, Implementing Regulations of the Real Estate Registration Law | The land is on the books. Its location is held somewhere else |
| AED 19.08bn | The UAE federal budget yearbook for 2026 names maintenance as one reason commodity and service supplies rose to AED 19.08bn; emirate budgets are separate. | UAE Ministry of Finance, UAE Federal Budget Yearbook 2026, section 3.3 | What capital figures record, and what they leave elsewhere |
| 24.0 across 15 units | ASHRAE’s database reports one replacement of an air-cooled reciprocating chiller, at 11 years, which is an observation and not an estimate, and the in-service mean age of 24.0 across 15 units is the more informative number even though it is a lower bound. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Three lives for the same asset |
| 12.3 across 8 units | ASHRAE’s database reports air-cooled rotary (screw) chillers with a standard deviation of 10.3 on a mean age of 12.3 across 8 units in service, and one replacement at 23 years, which supports no default. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Three lives for the same asset |
| 38,946 pieces of equipment | The ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database covers 345 buildings and 38,946 pieces of equipment, read on 3 September 2026. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Three lives for the same asset |
| 20.6 years | ASHRAE’s database reports no replacements of water-cooled reciprocating chillers: every one of the 9 units in the sample is still running at a mean age of 20.6 years, which is a lower bound and nothing else. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Three lives for the same asset |
| five units | ASHRAE’s database reports five water-cooled rotary (screw) chillers, none replaced, still running at a mean age of 11.0 years. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Three lives for the same asset |
| 12 building types | For twelve building types the Saudi Ministry of Finance’s asset manual publishes both the whole-unit life and the component lives, so both treatments IPSAS 45 permits can be costed from one table. | Saudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, ArabicSaudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, second edition, section 5.2 | Componentisation calculator |
Across the lifecycle
18 figures
| Figure | Claim | Source | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| 239 units reported | The ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database reports 239 centrifugal chillers, 209 in service and 30 replaced. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost DatabaseASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database, cooling equipment, chiller, centrifugal | One asset, four records |
| median 18.0 | In the ASHRAE database the 209 centrifugal chillers in service have a median age of 18.0 years, which is how old they are so far rather than how long they last. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost DatabaseASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database, cooling equipment, chiller, centrifugal | One asset, four records |
| standard deviation 8.2 | In the ASHRAE database the ages of the 209 centrifugal chillers in service have a standard deviation of 8.2, over a range of 3 to 41. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost DatabaseASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database, cooling equipment, chiller, centrifugal | One asset, four records |
| median 25.0 | In the ASHRAE database the 30 centrifugal chillers that were replaced lived a median of 25.0 years. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost DatabaseASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database, cooling equipment, chiller, centrifugal | One asset, four records |
| 7.6 on a mean of 25.2 | ASHRAE reports a standard deviation of 7.6 on a mean of 25.2 for the centrifugal chiller. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | ProposalsAlso on One asset, four records |
| between 22% and 42% | In the rows of ASHRAE’s cooling set with five or more replacements, averaging the in-service and replaced columns understates the observed life by between 22% and 42%. | ASHRAE Service Life and Maintenance Cost Database | Proposals |
| Nine chapters | Government Auditing Standards, 2024 revision, has nine chapters, and not one of them names a subject: GAGAS puts establishing the criteria on the auditor. | Government Auditing Standards, 2024 revision, GAO-24-106786, Comptroller General of the United States | Internal auditor |
| 6 to 12 months | In UK central government a Gate 5 review is held around handover and again 6 to 12 months after it, and can be repeated through the life of the service. | Gate Review 5: Operational Review and Benefits Realisation (workbook)Gate Review 5: Operational Review and Benefits Realisation, purpose and timing | Asset lifecycle method |
| within a year | In UK central government, Gate 5 expects the senior responsible owner to hand over to the operational business owner typically within a year of the start of the operational service. | Gate Review 5: Operational Review and Benefits Realisation (workbook)Gate Review 5: Operational Review and Benefits Realisation, Purpose of the Gate 5 Review; questions 5.1 and 5.2 | Asset lifecycle method |
| at least once a year | The Global Internal Audit Standards require the chief audit executive to confirm the internal audit function’s organisational independence to the board at least once a year. | Global Internal Audit Standards, Institute of Internal AuditorsGlobal Internal Audit Standards, Standard 7.1, p. 46 | Lifecycle review method |
| 10 and 15 working days, then 45 calendar days | The payment chain of Article 109 of the Saudi procurement regulations, in the Arabic text, runs 10 and 15 working days, then 45 calendar days. | Saudi Government Tenders and Procurement Law and its Executive Regulations, consolidated Arabic text, third editionGovernment Tenders and Procurement Law, Executive Regulations, Article 109 (Arabic text) | HomeAlso on Payment chain calculator |
| 98 | The English translation of Article 109 of the Saudi procurement regulations makes the invoice-to-payment chain 98 days, against 80 in the Arabic text. | Executive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement LawExecutive Regulations of the Government Tenders and Procurement Law, English translation, Article 109 | Home |
| 687 certificates | The ISO Survey reported 687 certificates to ISO 55001 worldwide in 2024, against 1,474,118 to ISO 9001; certificates are not conformance, and many organisations apply a standard without certifying, so what has not scaled is certification. | The ISO Survey of Management System Standard Certifications, 2024 | Home |
| 1,474,118 | The ISO Survey reported 1,474,118 certificates to ISO 9001 worldwide in 2024, against 687 to ISO 55001. | The ISO Survey of Management System Standard Certifications, 2024 | Home |
| 770 asset types | The Saudi Ministry of Finance publishes a useful life for 770 asset types and not one is a single figure; every one is a minimum and a maximum, printed beside a default life. | Saudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, ArabicSaudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, second edition, section 5.2, pages 78 to 152 | ProposalsAlso on Three lives for the same asset |
| a median 1.67 times the minimum | Across the 770 useful-life ranges the Saudi Ministry of Finance publishes, the maximum is a median 1.67 times the minimum. | Saudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, Arabic | Proposals |
| a median 67% higher | Across the 770 useful-life ranges the Saudi Ministry of Finance publishes, the annual depreciation charge at the short end is a median 67% higher than at the long end, and both are inside what the manual permits. | Saudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, ArabicSaudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, second edition, section 5.2 | ProposalsAlso on Three lives for the same asset |
| two formulations | The Saudi Ministry of Finance asset guide uses two formulations without reconciling them: cost stops being added to the carrying amount when the asset is ready to be placed in service, and the procedure exists to move the cost held as projects under implementation to an asset when operation and use begin. | Saudi Ministry of Finance, comprehensive manual for the census and valuation of assets of government entities, ArabicSaudi Ministry of Finance asset manual, section 7.2, pp. 204 and 207 | Asset lifecycle method |
Cite this page
Projects Advisors, “Every sourced number, the claim it supports, and the page it lives in.,” revised 2026-10-24, https://projects-advisors.com/figures
Correspondence
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