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The Lifecycle
01

Inception & Development

Almost nothing has been built, and almost everything has been decided.

Projects Advisors. Reuse: https://projects-advisors.com/licenceInfluence over the outcome against money committedInfluence over the outcome begins high and decays. Money committed begins near zero and rises steeply. The window in which influence is high and commitment low is short and sits at the very start.InceptionOperationsInfluence over the outcomeMoney committedThe window: still cheap to change
Influence over the outcome is highest when almost nothing has been spent, and falls as commitment accumulates.
01Inception02Delivery03Handover04Operations

The inception stage is short, cheap and disproportionately consequential. Location, configuration, procurement route, delivery model and the basic operating concept are all fixed here, usually by a small group, often under time pressure, and frequently before anyone who will operate the asset has been consulted.

The cost of changing any of these decisions is close to zero at this point. It never gets lower. Every subsequent stage adds commitment, and commitment is what converts a decision into a constraint.

The recurring failure is not poor analysis. It is that the questions asked at inception are delivery questions: what will it cost, how long will it take, who will build it, and the questions that determine whole-life outcomes are ownership questions, which nobody in the room is accountable for yet.

What typically goes wrong

  1. 01

    The operator has no voice in a brief that determines their next 30 years.

  2. 02

    A concept-grade estimate is adopted as a budget. For building and general construction, AACE 56R-08 puts a Class 5 estimate as wide as -30% to +50%; treating that as a commitment builds failure into the baseline.

  3. 03

    Whole-life cost is acknowledged in principle and excluded from the decision in practice.

  4. 04

    Information requirements are never specified, so nobody is contractually obliged to produce them later.

Questions worth asking

  • ?

    Who in this process is accountable for what the asset costs to run?

  • ?

    What class of estimate is this, and what range is attached to it?

  • ?

    What information will we need at handover, and where is it specified?

  • ?

    What are we deciding now that we will not be able to revisit?

The seam that follows

Between inception and delivery, intent becomes specification, and whatever was never written down stops existing.

Writing on inception

Operations is told to take part in the business case. Nobody asks it to sign.

Business case method already asks for the operating cost and for affordability across the asset's life, and EXPRO's business case procedures, built on HM Treasury's guide, ask for both. What the documents reviewed here do not ask for is a record that the unit which will run the asset has accepted the operating estimate as a claim on its future budget. The capital sum has an approver. The running cost has a description and a statement of support.

Read
Every stage, in one index

What to examine at inception

6 domains from the assurance framework belong to this stage. Each names a question with a checkable answer and the published clause that requires it.

The 6 domains in full, with sources

This stage in the method

  1. Need and outcome
  2. Options and business case
  3. Delivery and contracting strategy
  4. Sanction and the authority to stop
  5. Operating and information requirements into tender
Asset lifecycle method

Tools for inception

Each runs in your browser, computes from published rules, and prints a sheet that says which. Nothing you enter leaves the page.

Every tool, by stage

Terms this stage relies on

Every definition, in one index